Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1
RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1
With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20
The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20
For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.
The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim
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I've had this post bookmarked for several weeks and have re-read it numerous times. I suspect it flew under the radar and many readers didn't appreciate what Lt. Tim was giving us. But this is how a winning horseplayer does it. I've had the pleasure and the privilege of sitting beside him in his living room, watching him do this and then going to Belmont and watching him cash.
His method is a mix of the old and the new. The new is RDSS and the PL and BPP rankings for contender selection. The old is William L. Scott's "form factors," modified by Tom Brohamer's "up close" definitions, and Dr. Bill Quirin's "form failures". Horses with form defects and form failures get demoted.
While Lt. Tim didn't go into details, it's obvious that #6 (post-time favorite) and #7 had form defects and he demoted them, leaving #1, #2, and #3. He bet the two longer odds horses to win and place, then boxed all three in an exacta. And presto! His $20 bet returned $135.
Lt. Tim has done this so many times, he can rip through a card in no time. For those of us who don't have Scott's form factors memorized, it's more arduous. (Sorry, no free lunch.) The more you do it, however, the easier it gets, just like most things.
