Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

clore1030 · 09-30-2010, 01:30 PM

For the sake of argument, let's just say that the pace lines that you selected are the same ones that I would have determined.

I would have to go with the 5 horse as my own model has the top EPR horse in a six-furlong race winning at a 56% clip and the top FW horse coming in at 44%. This horse fits just fine, all that is needed for me to wager would be proper odds. I would need at least 3/1 in order to profit given my win% for the last 20-race cycle.

Alas, today's card is canceled, so we will never know.

EDITED TO ADD:
I should add that I tend to stay away from such a low claiming level given my own success rate in such things, thus I might set my odds requirement a bit higher.

09-30-2010, 01:30 PM	#3
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	For the sake of argument, let's just say that the pace lines that you selected are the same ones that I would have determined. I would have to go with the 5 horse as my own model has the top EPR horse in a six-furlong race winning at a 56% clip and the top FW horse coming in at 44%. This horse fits just fine, all that is needed for me to wager would be proper odds. I would need at least 3/1 in order to profit given my win% for the last 20-race cycle. Alas, today's card is canceled, so we will never know. EDITED TO ADD: I should add that I tend to stay away from such a low claiming level given my own success rate in such things, thus I might set my odds requirement a bit higher. Last edited by clore1030; 09-30-2010 at 01:32 PM.