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Old 08-16-2016, 02:34 PM   #25
Tim Y
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Join Date: Feb 2008
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SAMPLE ERROR: drawing an incorrect conclusion from too small a data set. Or, the plague of small numbers. That is a denigrating expression of Bernoulli's theory of LARGE NUMBERS, (actually used in insurance actuarials to predict probably of death by age and lifestyle) aka the MORE examples one investigates, the closer those observations are to the reality of the situation.

Read The Drunkard's Walk, a great primer on the foibles of statistical evaluation .....it is eye opening.

Imagine I am from Mars and want to invade Earth. The rational way to scout the target would be to send MULTIPLE probes or groups, all around the planet, and multiple times of the year, to get an idea what they were going to encounter.

I am a dummy so I send ONE expedition and it happens to land in a nice meadow in June in rural Minnesota where I see open land and small animals.

Between these two groups, WHICH would you say probably had the better reconnaissance? and which WILL suffer the effects of Sample Error.
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