Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 07-13-2017, 02:50 PM

There are only two ways to win a horse race: Set the pace or overcome the pace that has been set. To paraphrase Jim Bradshaw " One horse goes for and gets the lead and the others chase him. If they catch him he loses, if they don't he wins". Everything else being equal, the fastest horses will win the race, except when they are compromised by running "too fast too early" or the pace scenario shows multiple Early horses battling for the lead and exhausting themselves. Then slower horse win. Then horses that have demonstrated that they will pass other horses and have made quick moves, POWER MOVES against a pace similar to today's projected pace will win.
These are the kinds of pacelines you should consider when you pick pacelines. While an evenly run race can be an indication of the horse coming to hand when it occurs after horrible races, it is not the paceline to use to evaluate the horse.
Jim Bradshaw's method is to find the fastest early pace that the horse competed against and finished competitively against, it doesn't matter where in the pps that is. With these POWER LINES selected for each horse you can now compare them, MATCH THEM UP. The Hat had 3 questions he needed answered when keeping that deep POWER LINE: 1) Is the horse still a horse(or has he become a Pig, thank you Richie P.)? 2. Has the horse changed his Running Style and become a slow horse? 3. Can that Early horse still get on top of his fractions? If the horse fails these tests and you have a deep POWER LINE, throw him out!!!!
His mantra was always,"Bet the horse closest to the leader positionally (at the first call), factoring in the pace of the race". If you look at a race and figure it is going to be won by EARLY, then you only want to consider pacelines where the horse ran within 1 length at the 1st call. If you believe the race will be won OTE, then you focus on the fastest early Presser, a horse within 2 or 3 lengths at the 1st Call. If there are none of those that have demonstrated they can be successful against today's projected pace, then you look further back at the SPs and find the horse that will pass multiple horses 1c-2c or 2c-sc against today's projected pace. Ignore gains from the stretch call to the finish as they result from the interaction of the horses in the early part of the race.
Folks, this is not easy to learn. I am in my 5th year of exclusively using the Match Up. I'm just now understanding what he and through Richie P were teaching. Final Time is the result of the dynamics of the horse race and focusing on it will lead you to the attempt to make the perfect adjustment. That just doesn't exist. Final Time variants applied to the 1st fraction will lead you in the opposite direction. Think about it a fast final time is often the product of slow early fractions which produces a negative adjustment, in the attempt to slow the final time down. If you apply some of that to the 1st call you are slowing that down even further, which makes no sense. A slow final time will often be the result of fast early fractions. This will produce a final time adjustment that attempts to bring that up to par so applying that to the 1st fraction will only make them faster. That's crazy!!!
The 1st fraction is most effected by the actual speed of the horses and least effected by the track surface speed(Run-up distance excluded). Since we are looking for horses that can get the lead and set the pace, isn't that where we want to start the investigation. in the process if we can find evidence of other horses that will press the leader and force him to go "too fast too early", then we can variegate the race OTE and throw out the Earlies.
The only way to do this is to work with RAW data that is not ruined by the applications of Final time variant.
Hope that helps.

07-13-2017, 02:50 PM	#10
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Winners There are only two ways to win a horse race: Set the pace or overcome the pace that has been set. To paraphrase Jim Bradshaw " One horse goes for and gets the lead and the others chase him. If they catch him he loses, if they don't he wins". Everything else being equal, the fastest horses will win the race, except when they are compromised by running "too fast too early" or the pace scenario shows multiple Early horses battling for the lead and exhausting themselves. Then slower horse win. Then horses that have demonstrated that they will pass other horses and have made quick moves, POWER MOVES against a pace similar to today's projected pace will win. These are the kinds of pacelines you should consider when you pick pacelines. While an evenly run race can be an indication of the horse coming to hand when it occurs after horrible races, it is not the paceline to use to evaluate the horse. Jim Bradshaw's method is to find the fastest early pace that the horse competed against and finished competitively against, it doesn't matter where in the pps that is. With these POWER LINES selected for each horse you can now compare them, MATCH THEM UP. The Hat had 3 questions he needed answered when keeping that deep POWER LINE: 1) Is the horse still a horse(or has he become a Pig, thank you Richie P.)? 2. Has the horse changed his Running Style and become a slow horse? 3. Can that Early horse still get on top of his fractions? If the horse fails these tests and you have a deep POWER LINE, throw him out!!!! His mantra was always,"Bet the horse closest to the leader positionally (at the first call), factoring in the pace of the race". If you look at a race and figure it is going to be won by EARLY, then you only want to consider pacelines where the horse ran within 1 length at the 1st call. If you believe the race will be won OTE, then you focus on the fastest early Presser, a horse within 2 or 3 lengths at the 1st Call. If there are none of those that have demonstrated they can be successful against today's projected pace, then you look further back at the SPs and find the horse that will pass multiple horses 1c-2c or 2c-sc against today's projected pace. Ignore gains from the stretch call to the finish as they result from the interaction of the horses in the early part of the race. Folks, this is not easy to learn. I am in my 5th year of exclusively using the Match Up. I'm just now understanding what he and through Richie P were teaching. Final Time is the result of the dynamics of the horse race and focusing on it will lead you to the attempt to make the perfect adjustment. That just doesn't exist. Final Time variants applied to the 1st fraction will lead you in the opposite direction. Think about it a fast final time is often the product of slow early fractions which produces a negative adjustment, in the attempt to slow the final time down. If you apply some of that to the 1st call you are slowing that down even further, which makes no sense. A slow final time will often be the result of fast early fractions. This will produce a final time adjustment that attempts to bring that up to par so applying that to the 1st fraction will only make them faster. That's crazy!!! The 1st fraction is most effected by the actual speed of the horses and least effected by the track surface speed(Run-up distance excluded). Since we are looking for horses that can get the lead and set the pace, isn't that where we want to start the investigation. in the process if we can find evidence of other horses that will press the leader and force him to go "too fast too early", then we can variegate the race OTE and throw out the Earlies. The only way to do this is to work with RAW data that is not ruined by the applications of Final time variant. Hope that helps.