[For The Lead]

If you don’t already have “MODERN PACE HANDICAPPING by TOM BROHAMER”, you should certainly make it a point to try and obtain a copy.
In the event you don’t already know this, Tom Brohamer joined and was a Charter Member of P.I.R.C.O. (the Sartin Methodology) in 1983. He was also a “Teaching Member”.

I thought I would take a moment to post a few things he had to say in his book.

On page 48, Brohamer talks about ESP (Early, Sustained, Presser).
He starts with Early Pace. He says, and I quote,"The trickiest piece of the pace scenario is the analysis of Early Pace. MOST RACES ARE WON ON OR NEAR THE LEAD". He goes on to say,"A horse designated as "EARLY" WILL FIGURE IN EVERY PACE SCENARIO".

When describing "SUSTAINED" horses he says,"This one comes on late in the race, often after the issue has been decided.". He goes to say,"It's habitually in the last third of the field at the early calls, and wins by catching the leaders in the last fraction. First call beaten lengths can be deceiving. They'll often be within three or four lengths at the first call, but usually against slow fractions. POSITION IS THE DECIDING FACTOR AS TO RUNNING STYLE; NOT VELOCITY".

On page 15, it says that Brohamer practiced at Southern California tracks with various ideas and methods and winning consistently before he arrived at the most important conclusion of his career. "THE HIGH FIGURE HORSES LOST TOO OFTEN".

On page 20, Brohamer says,"This is another important point in pace analysis. A one run closer, the horse possessing only a strong third fraction, is THE WORST KIND OF PACE SELECTION. Only when the early pace AND presser scenario completely breaks down is this type of runner a viable selection. Even then, they usually settle for the minor purse awards".