[Ted Craven]

Here is a relevant reply I gave recently in another thread related to use of ratings from the BRIS PPs, which some people also use (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15495):

(Commenting on 'Class-related BRIS figs like Prime Power and Average Class Level) -

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I always was under the impression of what Dr. Sartin originally said: CLASS is PACE and vice versa

I still agree with that decades old aphorism of Doc's. I also respect his original scientific point-of-view to go where the data lead him, without preconception.

In recent years, in RDSS, we have added 2 public high-level oddslines from BRIS - Prime Power and ProfitLine, since they are in the public domain and digitally available. This is NOT because they are profitable figs in and of themselves: they are too widely disseminated for that. Consider them analogous to Jim Cramers PSR figs (Projected Speed Rating) available via HDW and in software which use that data source like HTR, HSH, Jcapper, etc.

The Average Class Level fig discussed in this thread (by Tom, and responded to by me) looks like just another high-level overall oddsline - and yet another 'black-box' fig. It could have omitted the word 'Class' and been named SuperOdds or Rx99, or whatever.

The reason I have incorporated these external ratings over the years for those who want and respect them is NOT because the internal Sartin ratings (BLBL, VDC, Total Energy, E/L, etc) are insufficient per se.

Rather - for me, regardless of how others think about it - it relates to advice given to me over the years by the late great Dr Bill Ziemba. He said a good oddsline is a result of both co-related and non-correlated figures, and he kept referring to similarities with the Modern Portfolio Theory for financial markets analysis. He said, essentially 'get a good mean of your numbers' meaning inputs from non-correlated angles, then your odds line will be valid enough to go into the markets and seek pricing divergences from your oddsline on which to wager.

In Sartin-world, Total Energy is pretty co-related to TPR, co-related to BLBL rank, co-related (sometimes imperfectly) to VDC, etc, etc. Energy-distribution imbalances and insufficiencies for today's matchup are of course a crux. But adding in external ratings like Prime Power and ProfitLine (or others - ACL?, if warranted) - seems to have added an extra measure of accuracy, and for newcomers as well as old-hands - a quick leg-up to both main Contenders and also live longshots. If you are unfamiliar, refer to the 4-Factor Method, researched and presented by late member Rich Mathie (rmath).

Emphasis on 'research', like Sartin's original bold move to follow the data. There is a developed methodology to assess the internal-to-Sartin factors plus external oddsline contributions (Prime Power, ProfitLine), along with contention guidelines, to get pretty good results if bet properly and prudently. Daily examples and wager results and educational materials published in Races of Interest Forum.

The Classiest, Paciest horses stand the best chances of winning. We continue to do our best to evolve and follow the data, without prejudice (not always easy, agreed).

Ted