[mick]

I've just finished Mike Maloney's book and it's an enjoyable read. I had heard about him 15-20 years ago when he was pushing $10 million a year through the windows at Keeneland, so they gave him a free office. He was something of a mystery man back then. Glad he decided to write a book. While it's entertaining, it also gives you an idea of what it takes to be a big-time professional player.

When Maloney's not betting with both hands, he's making his own speed figures, watching replays and making trip notes. Then there are the track biases, clocker reports, trainer and jockey statistics, etc. With all that information, he adjusts his figures to come up with something he calls "ability" figures and those are the basis for his betting. He must work 60 hours a week to create his "edge" and not many of us want to do that.

There is an easier way to play with an edge though. You can use something as readily available as the BRIS Prime Power ("BPP") rankings. Here are some win percentages I found for BPP and dirt races:

BPP #1 31%
BPP #2 20%
BPP #3 14%

Convert those percentages into odds and you get something like 2-1, 4-1 and 6-1. If you want to make a profit over time, bet those horses at higher odds, e.g. 3-1, 5-1 and 7-1. If the win pool isn't giving you those odds, then don't bet. If you're a two-horse bettor and your win percentage is 50%, make sure the total odds are more than 6, like 3-1 and 4-1.

That's basically how I play. I start with #1 and if the tote board says 9-5, I don't bet him and move to #2. If he's something like 9-2 or 5-1, I will bet him. If he's lower than that, I'll move to #3. If I'm getting my odds, I'll play. Otherwise, it's an El Paso for me.

There are two caveats though. Firstly, I don't bet races with an odds-on or even-money favorite. (You can always make a "Dr. Z" bet if you see a big discrepancy in the place or show pools but I'm talking about win bets here.) Those horses skew the odds on the other horses and they win more than 40%. I can't make money betting on them and I can't make money betting against them either, so I pass.

And secondly, I seldom bet horses going off at 10-1 or more. I need a really good reason, like a potential pace melt down with a bunch of earlies and a presser-sustained with a good late kick.

So, that's how I bet with an edge and I don't work 60 hours a week at it. You have to be patient and you won't get a lot of action but over time, you'll make money.