Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
My earlier comments about this horse were along the line of thinking: you have to be prepared (and you probably have to have some of record keeping showing successful ROI) to be betting on these kinds of improbable horses, at improbable odds, even given nice readouts and inside knowledge of (even if temporary) shifting E/L or other biases. You have to make the same choice every time this scenario recurs, otherwise we all look like geniuses in hindsight (and like Brad Pitt in the mirror). For ever time they hit, how many times do they lose (or worse, divert your bet away from a mere 4-1, also likely, winner).
I would like to have made this analysis before this race, seen the opportunity, made the decision to wager/not wager. And I salute whomever actually made a wager on this horse!
Ted
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First off, I am in agreement that to get higher priced mutuels it is
imperitive to think out of the box.
And that might mean picking pacelines that do not seem conventional, if not downright silly; this also means taking a line from a lesser level racetrack than the one run at today, and/or using a race at a distance that isn't today's distance, or weird as it sounds to some, to use a paceline 7-8-9 lines back.
I am all for doing things on the contrarian side, while also knowing that I might not win races nearly as often as those best of last 3 players, I might cash on a 20-1 shot or better horse more often than not.
From my brief RDSS experience, I am of the opinion though that when I use a route paceline for a sprint race, that horse's late pace figures, plus their corresponding incremental match-up visual seem to make them stronger contenders than they possibly should be.
I feel that these steeds are ranked a big too high when using route pacelines in sprint races are used.
Again, I repeat: I have no qualms taking 30-1 mutuels, and am jealous of the guys that sniff these beauties out.