Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed
Wow FTL we are definitely on the same page! I have been studying conditions as you laid out in your first post. What I am doing is using an example race so I can read that days conditions and each horses PP's conditions. I am using OP 4-13-2013 Race 2. To me its a great race because it has a full field of 12 horses all with full PP history. The race is NW2L and as you can see all 12 horses have exactly 2 wins. This allows me to analyze how these horses won their 2 races and in what conditions they won and the conditions they have been running recently. This is also a great race because I think the winner is not hard to find (I am not done with my full analysis so I don't want to jump to conclusions) and the winner paid 7.50. It also looks like the RDSS software identified this as a winner also. When I say winner I an referring to Sartin's method of selecting 2 horses to win. He seemed to be a big advocate of this especially for his early clients who were just starting off as I am.
So where I am at exactly is looking at PP's for Franks On Fire. I want to select the proper paceline. I ran VDC best 3 option for the auto select. The first thing that jumps out at me is line 3. CL 10/19 N1-3MX. That tells me its Claiming $10,000, Purse $19,000, Non Winners of 1 Race in the last 3 months with exception conditions. What those exception conditions are I am not sure but I am guessing its like you stated in your post because when I look at the odds from that race Frank was 18-1. Thats a big jump from what he has been getting and I am guessing the exceptions are resulting in horses in this field with more than 1 win under the claiming price of theses exceptions. Because Frank only has 1 win he wasn't given much chance and that result reflects that. When I look at this I changed the paceline from line 3 to line 1. The conditions on line 1 are more indicative of today's race and its a good race as its most recent. Being new to this let me know if I am straying from things or not seeing everything correctly.
Finally I do have a question on paceline 1. What does the "s" mean in the conditions?
I attached a screen print its the first time I am trying this so hoping it shows up.
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Good job by you to see and make the correction.
The "s" you asked about represents a race "restriction", which is different than a condition. In this case the "s" stands for "STATE BRED". When you see that, it means all the horses in that race were bred in the state were the race was run. Here's an example.
This race will be run at Penn National, located in Pennsylvania, tomorrow. I have underlined in red the actual condition of the race. I have also circled in red the "restriction" of the race, which reads "for Registered PA-Bred". Therefore, the race is "restricted" to fillies and mares that were bred in PA and the condition limits them further to those that are NW2L.
Just a little insight into state bred races.
Because they are state bred races, the purses are inflated by approximately 20% as compared to the same level of race that is NOT a state bred race.
Because these races are restricted to only those horses bred in a particular state, the competition level of the race is lower than a race that is NOT restricted to state breds.
I think you rationalized line 3 very well. A race for horses that have not won a race in the last 3 months is A LOT tougher than a NW3L. In a race for horses that have not won a race in the last 3 months, there is no telling how many wins those horses might have "lifetime". Very well done.
Lastly, if you have not already read the "Teaching" area threads, I suggest that you do. If paceline and contender selection is on your mind, there is a specific thread for that, but I suggest you read everything in the teaching area. I think you will find all of the threads there are very informative.