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Old 02-05-2019, 07:49 PM   #7
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
In response to your first question, 3 bad races in a row. I would still look as to why I made it a contender in the first place. 3 bad races in a row is not a good sign and indicates the horse is going in the wrong direction. A horse can be given an excuse such as first race after a lay off or a bad race before a lay off. Class should always be looked at because if a horse is too far up in class it can't expect to be competitive. Generally speaking a horse that has been placed properly to surface and distance and has raced 3 bad races as indicated by a declining Preceptor ratings, declining Total Energy or declining Speed Ratings can be safely tossed.


One can get their contenders from eliminating from the bottom BLBL similar to what Sartin recommended by using Total Energy. Actually BLBL is better than Total Energy for getting rid of non contenders. Not sure BLBL was available when Sartin made that recommendation. Caution: do not use the Preceptor for eliminating contenders as it measures a horse against its self within the horses PP's. It does not consider other factors such as the matchup against the other horses within the race. BLBL supersedes it when comparing against other horses best Preceptor lines. Also BLBL is better than the Primary line score although they may be close the BLBL will produce more winners.


Having said all that it works when one can pick the correct pace line to be rated. Most have a problem even using the Preceptor because they refuse to go past the last line or some other ancient idea they cling to. Stubborn resistance to change is the Achilles heel of most handicappers.


Also the BLBL is dependent on a single correct pace line. I would recommend that this pitfall or punji stake trap can be and should be avoided for contenders. How you may ask? By using something that is a composite rating that is not dependent on any one race or line. Within RDSS there are several factors for this such as CR, CR+, CSR, APV, RX 1 & 3 Etc. The RX factors are weighted by the proper picking of pace lines also and I believe their better suited for analysis than the picking of contenders. Of these I prefer the CR for various reasons. All of these can have its own pitfalls as to how their obtained such as not being surface or distance specific but their not dependent on the proper choosing of one specific pace line. They quickly eliminate non contenders and save time for analysis of contenders after pace lines have been chosen.There are also some excellent composites outside of the program such as from BRIS which I use.


Using a composite for contenders can and should greatly increase your chance for success.


Mitch44
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