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Old 04-15-2016, 10:13 PM   #22
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
Hi, checking in from beautiful Charlottesville, Virginia near the Blue Ridge Mountains before I head out for a week's seminar working on my 'intuition / minds-eye' (better late than never ). Then on to Las Vegas and area for a week, returning for May 2 (got to stay balanced - LOL!)

Re some of the comments here:

1. Don't worry - nothing from the current RDSS will be missing from RDSS2.1 (except hopefully most of the bugs). You can even run the current version side-by-side with the new one. You don't even have to update if you don't want to. I am only adding additional things.

2. Stuff people don't want to see. I take the advice given above and will make it so that CSR (like Morning Line Odds, requested previously) can be hidden wherever it appears if you really don't want to see it. And as I mentioned in the RDSS2.1 Feature List, the Analysis Panel will have the same Layout Tool as the PP Panels do now, so if you don't want to see the new Rx screen, you can hide it (and you can hide as many of the other Analysis screens as you want to, as well). For those who think they may be interested in new things - don't worry: you can still check it out. (And I assure you: the profits made by making use of these newer things is still as spendable and virtuous as if made using any of the other screens.) Is there anything else I should make optionally 'hideable' - remembering, you can hide entire screens?

3. Matchup Stuff. Mark, as far as I can tell, everything you asked me for is included in the Feature List, and some of it has been displayed in Bill V's screens (grouping by Running Style). If I left something out, please send me an email or PM. Lone Speed - if you would kindly send me (or re-send me) the specifics of your 3 years ago request, I would be grateful. Maybe it's in my mind to do and did not get described in the Feature List. Besides FPLR, Projected Pace on the Adjusted screen, sorting by Running Style, improved accuracy (IMO) on creating Running Styles -what other Matchup Stuff is there, please?

4. Re 'data-mining' - well, one man's data-mining is another man's Brohamer Decision Model. As above, if you don't want to keep Decision Models (or Track Profiles, or track your wagers), then simply don't use the new Modeler. As for performing the various searching and slicing and dicing of HTR, or HSH or whatever - if I knew more about what these programs do, I could tell you better what RDSS will or won't do sooner or later. I have no interest in 'wannabe' anything.

If you'd like to keep an automated Wager Decision Form like Doc Sartin suggested in numerous Follow Ups - on any factor you like (e.g. like I did with Rx for Aqueduct), or if you want to track your decisions on what combo of factors works well for YOU at PENN National sprints for Winners in field sizes of 7+ horses and what is your average ROI and Hit rate (for example) - maybe the Modeler will help you. If you never keep very many records at all because it's all too damned much work ... etc, etc.

5. Re 'Ted has decided that his perceptor should replace Doc's work' -- Perceptor is none other than the F6 Feature in Validator - created by Doc to tell you which paceline the software thinks is strongest: no more, no less. It's not even my label (it's Guy Wadsworth's). And Doc never included automated paceline selection in any of his programs, so I never replaced anything - only added for consideration. Please repeat after me: if you don't want to use automated paceline selection - please don't use it.

Further, Best of the LAST 3 Distance and Surface (or BLT/C) has been the Default PSS option for years now, and should surprise no one that is suddenly appears. Feel free to use it as a starting point then review the line choices and change them, or ignore it. For the PSS Screen Label 'gentz' saw and queried ('BLT/C Syndicate') - it is simply an 'artifact' of a prvious testing version and has already disappeared from the latest one. It's a test I did on doing Contender separation based on user-defined rules, and as mentioned in the Feature List, would run on whatever collection of pacelines the user came up with - automated or manual.

For the initial Study Bill Lyster did (thank you again Bill) - to validate whether any of these new factors were valuable - it would make no sense for him to make his own decisions about line selection as no one else could trust whether theirs wold be similar, and thus if the factors under study would perform the same in their hands. At least with an automated method, if you do the same as Bill did, you'll get the same results. Plus - if the research method were not automated, likely he would not have been able to gather a tenth the data he did.

Bill concluded (so far) more or less what I thought: the new Class Rating CR+ is much better than than the old one: CR. Whatever you think of CSR, it is highly predictive of Winners and in-the-money finishers - at the average mutuels and ROI stated. As are the Rx factors - even more so. Judge them now, or judge them later (I suggest later ...).

6. Please see Point #1.

That's all folks. Enjoy the rest of April - see you in May

Ted
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