Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 05-18-2019, 12:30 PM

Most years if you handicapped the Derby the Preakness was already handicapped as well, but this year none of the top 4 Derby finishers are coming back. But still there are a few returnees from the Derby and maybe some new blood to consider. I recall that The Hat considered marathons at 10 furlongs and longer, but this method has worked well for years even though the race is only 9.5 furlongs.

Improbable has run 4-4-1 off of a 136.1 mile split and 6-6-2 off of a 112.5 3/4 split in the Derby.

Warrior's Charge ran 1-1-1 off of a 136.2 with a 6F split of 111.5 with lengths to spare (open leads in several previous races, (even further in front than Maximum Security's races, BTW).

Always Mining has run 1-1-1 off of a 136.3 with a 6f split of 113.0 and 3-1-1 off of a 112.7 split.

Bodexpress has run 2-2-2 off of a 136.3 mile and 112.9 6f time. I think he was impacted somewhat in the Derby and his 2nd in his previous race shows he can run in graded company, despite his maiden status.

Anothertwistoffate ran a 134.8 mile while running 3-4-3 to the stretch call vs a 112.9 6f call; and another mile in 137.7 running 3-4-2 against a 109.6 6f call.

I think Warrior's Charge and Always Mining go to the lead with WC surviving; Improbable and Bodexpress right behind and then Anothertwistoffate behind them.

So Improbable at 5/2 and Bodexpress at 20/1 on top with maybe a wire job by Warrior's Charge at 12/1 with Anothertwistoffate the third pressing type that might crack the top 3.

good luck to you all.

05-18-2019, 12:30 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Preakness Marathon? Most years if you handicapped the Derby the Preakness was already handicapped as well, but this year none of the top 4 Derby finishers are coming back. But still there are a few returnees from the Derby and maybe some new blood to consider. I recall that The Hat considered marathons at 10 furlongs and longer, but this method has worked well for years even though the race is only 9.5 furlongs. Improbable has run 4-4-1 off of a 136.1 mile split and 6-6-2 off of a 112.5 3/4 split in the Derby. Warrior's Charge ran 1-1-1 off of a 136.2 with a 6F split of 111.5 with lengths to spare (open leads in several previous races, (even further in front than Maximum Security's races, BTW). Always Mining has run 1-1-1 off of a 136.3 with a 6f split of 113.0 and 3-1-1 off of a 112.7 split. Bodexpress has run 2-2-2 off of a 136.3 mile and 112.9 6f time. I think he was impacted somewhat in the Derby and his 2nd in his previous race shows he can run in graded company, despite his maiden status. Anothertwistoffate ran a 134.8 mile while running 3-4-3 to the stretch call vs a 112.9 6f call; and another mile in 137.7 running 3-4-2 against a 109.6 6f call. I think Warrior's Charge and Always Mining go to the lead with WC surviving; Improbable and Bodexpress right behind and then Anothertwistoffate behind them. So Improbable at 5/2 and Bodexpress at 20/1 on top with maybe a wire job by Warrior's Charge at 12/1 with Anothertwistoffate the third pressing type that might crack the top 3. good luck to you all.