Congratulations Mitch - nice hit with a scarcity of traditional info to go by! (BTW, I moved this post from the Selections forum because ... not a Selection, more of a celebration).
For those not privy to the 'monkey' analysis, RDSS also has pretty good tools for First Time Starters (also not in the mainstream). Among them, the tote ratios
Tx1 and Tx2 (aka PW% Place/Win ratio). Also the
WR - Work Rank (Entries screen) as a supporting factor.
The Winner was ranked Top 3 in both Tx ratios and particularly =2nd on the more important
PW%, and although the screenshot below uses closing tote pools, I am positive that something similar would show up in the last few minutes. This is an angle we have used before (a few Saratoga meetups): when a FTS is let go at long odds (here 12-1) yet
someone or
collection of someones bets based on their knowledge/belief of a horse's readiness using factors not generally accessible to the public - that money has to show up in the pools and this then becomes a
proxy factor (particularly the imbalance of the other pools compared to Win pool) for whatever the non-public info might be.
The winner was also in the Top 3 (tied 3rd) in
Work Rank, thus even with no running history, was prepped for its opener among the top horses.
Another factor to use for FTS is the
ProfitLine, which is why I elevated the #4 horse with PL=2. I make no comment on the other horses I left in the Primary group, except that the heavy favourite is a natural to keep in any vertical bet structure.
The 'monkey' must be blabbing to
someone out there
... someone (or group of someone's, possibly including some RDSS users
) knew something!
Still - congratulations on your research, and payoff in this race - very efficient bet structuring!
Ted
Note: I did not bet on this race. I took a look only after seeing this thread.