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Old 03-20-2017, 04:34 PM   #9
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Back in the early 90's the average variant was 17. We use to accept as normal 7 to 27. Over 27 or under 7 they were considered abnormal. Plus back than each point was worth 1/2 length so a 27 would be slow 5 lengths and a 7 was fast 5 lengths. So with the "Doc's" recommended adjustment of 50% its not a huge adjustment either way.

Most Eastern tracks tend to run over the 17 normal variant and tracks in Texas, Arizona and California tend to run under the normal of 17 because of lack of rain and not having as much cushion as eastern tracks.

I tend to use and view 7 to 27 as normal. However the very best way to handle this is to put it in context of all the other runners in the race. In the winter at MYV its common to see 40 and plus variants and for all horses, therefore a 20 could be out of line for that particular race and horses. Or in Cailf. all your runners have -5 etc and you have one with a 17 normal. The very best way to deal with it is in the context of the lines for other horses. And when you have that oddball such as a shipper from the East going to Cailf. its better adjusted to the fast track its going to encounter and to the other horses.( by the trk. to trk. adjustment) This can also happen when a MYV horse from very bad tracks runs at a different time of the year over the same track. If not shipping I select another line that's more normal. On shippers you may not find any normal lines especially if going from the east to a west coast track. The track to track adjustment will account for this and adjust for the line you choose.

A valid question is: Is this horse shipping? If not select another line. What is the average or normal for the other horses in the race.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 03-20-2017 at 04:48 PM.
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