[cigar]

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Deceleration

papajohn3timesreference your question on balance, DCL and what is deceleration?


Decelerationis an important factor in racing, only RDSS is using it. The matchup has a cause and effect on deceleration and it also comes from a horse’s natural running style and how it uses its energy. Most races it’s a combination of both.


Balance is a basic or crude way of looking at deceleration and consists of E/Ep# + E/LP# + TPP # rankings to get the balance number on the Energy screen. A crude way to also look at the matchup. The lower the balance the more efficient the horse can run in today’s matchup. Those with a high balance can be tossed. Sartin said horses over 8 seldom win. Caveat here: the low numbers are best, the more contenders in a race the higher the numbers will be to include the best orlowest numbers. **** If you model this keep the same number of contenders for all your races in the model,Sartin always recommended 5 ***** I don’t believe one needs to model it toget the point.


Most horses have a specific running style and that style has an effect on deceleration. This style is best determined by % Med. Horses with a % Med. 0f70.0% seldom win unless matched up with a bunch of other high % Med. horses.These pretty much are an extremely high % deceleration and a toss. Ditto for extremely low % Med as they indicate a possible one run horse. Brohamer's bookModern Pace Handicapping goes into great detail on % Med. and its uses. It is not a standalone factor but is a tool.


Another way of looking at deceleration first appeared in PMTR book under advancedconcepts. It simply measures the difference from EPR and LPR E.g.


EPR LPR TPR Diff.


A 92 72 164 -20


B 72 92 164 +20


BTW who of A & B would win this matchup?


In RDSS you can see this on the TPR + EL screen by the red and blue lines, the faster early the longer the red line and the LPR is a blue line, the greater the plus difference the longer the blue line. The "Doc" loved visual stuff because he could grasp it better. Bill V is one who can make this workwell for him also. An early embryo version.



Moving along: The DCL you asked about is a much better way of looking at this. It’s amuch more accurate measurement. Obtained by 3rd FR divided by SecondCall E.g. 52.5 FPS / 55.3 FPS = 94.9 DCL. Here’s where members go wrong with this, high DCL numbers aren’t necessary the best. Low velocity horses don’t decelerate much. We’re looking for fast horses with the least deceleration thathold up to the wire. DCL measures deceleration but fails to consider energy. What you need to do is put the rating in context with Total Energy. Eliminate low Total Energy horses with low DCL numbers. Another way to put this is eliminate low velocity horses with high deceleration. If you look at the Velocity POH screen first you can determine the match up andwho can’t meet it. Think of which are the worst horses (low Tot. En. & lowDCL then go the BLBL screen and look at the rank. You’ll be surprised. After my analysis of screens including sometimes just the TPR screen I can determine what BLBL will be.


All that said about DCL, it still is just a tool and another crude way of looking at deceleration but better than previous methods. The reason I say that is because it’s only one measurement of deceleration. With the progression from TPR to 3 fractions and FPS (feet per second), compounded ratings came about such as FX,HE which propelled the Sartin Mythology forward. The rapid advancement of computers also made it possible to handle 3 fractions and all the additional math, with greater memory and faster calculations. Not only were the compounded ratings better it also propelled deceleration forward with such programs as Entropy which is now extinct and a crude version. Reading the Entropy manual will probably confuse the hell out of most, besides it has evolved and its formulas are no longer valid. My favorite program. The only thing good in the manual is concept.


The very best comprehensive factor for deceleration is V/DC. DCL is only one element or factor in it, as it contains several different measurements of factors in it and some other hokey pokey good stuff. An all in one rating that’sa little better than BLBL. It’s one factor that works at all tracks, distance and surfaces.


You need to look at the rankings of V/DC on the BLBL screen because they include energy and deceleration for several different factors being rated. For those pesky ties prefer the better BLBL ranking to break ties. You may have two 4 rankings for V/DC the one with the better BLBL ranking is the better of the two. Also you can go to the Primary screen to break ties, as an ex. if there are 2 horses tied with a ranking of 4 the one with the lowest total energy and highest ranking number is the worst of the 4 etc. The worst ranking not the difference in %. Depending on where the decelerationis taking place a horse could be tied in total energy or very close and have a higher % but be better depending on where the deceleration is taking place, the ranking number separates them better and BLBL total. You can really just scratch from BLBL and get the same results which is much easier. The other way gives a better picture of who is better, a clearer picture of ties. Especially when you’re down to 5 contenders for ties on BLBL orties in V/DC. It pays to look at several different screen.


All the above are tools and different ways of looking at deceleration with the latest, most complex and efficient being V/DC. Deceleration is basically when a horse is gutted, out of gas and running on empty, where that takes place and is caused by a combination of running style and the matchup. They throw in the towel, raise the white flag and surrender to the superior forces that attacked it.


Not just in the 3rd FR, if an Early horse doesn’t carry its speed intothe 2nd FR it’s a false Early horse and gutted at that point. V/DChas a measurement for that. This is also why horses that can run or put together two good Fractions are superior and force others not to run their 3rdFr. number and TPR. Ditto for S types that run two good FR or HE. One good FR horses seldom win unless everything collapses, a horse with a big 2ndFR seldom wins but it does in many cases propel them into the money (place& show) as they pass many gutted horses.


Without getting more into the nuts and bolts of it any deeper that’s about as simple asI can make it. Essentially it’s several compounded factors, each measured by deceleration of those factors, combined with energy which also takes into consideration the matchup and a clone of what Sartin taught Bradshaw who together collaborated to what is now V/DC.


Mitch44

I finally had a chance to read this post. Mitch, thank you for your insight on Dcl. Great read!