Hi,
New to this forum
Was a member of the old DRF community and posted selections for a few years until they closed it
- but enjoying the PAIHL contest on Paceadvantage ( some real good handicappers from all over the net competing for about 4 months )
- the scorer and contest organizer is super duper
on the first day of the contest there was a 30-1 at GP that won; and i believe 10 out of the 50 teams had it, my team fluked the x
i am definitely a longshot player - how i find value is learn how to pick them
probably my best angle is an adjusted speed fig - you guys know "key-race" theory?
"key-race" tabulating is alot of work and somehow I developed a very accurate speed fig on the shoulders of key race theory - which freed up alot of work
w/ these speed figs there are alot of overlays cuz alot of published figs don't acknowledge how a horse got from point A to point B; they just measure how long it took
being a fig player i've also learned alot of their weaknesses, and alot about the Universiality of the game; it's amazing how trainers do the same things over and over, for the last 70 years!
form, not as tactile as a speed fig, but just as important
OK, so now U know I'm a value player; and I love the originator of this thread: I too have never understood the need for a value/odds line
if u see a horse is by far the best aren't you going to use him?
why do u need a value line to determine if a bet is worthy?
it makes it seem value-line betting is more about economics than handicapping - it's intelligent, but how relevant
sometimes U have to take 3-1 if it looks like all systems go
the most important aspect of value-line handicapping is the amount of work that goes into creating a line; i have so much work to do evaluating competiton i'm not really concerned w/ "i'm getting fair value" - in this game we try and find niches where we create our own value, through horizontal exotics for example
anyways, i'm sure someone will take me to task
fffastt