Quote:
Originally Posted by dandy68
can the difference between original and adjusted PLs be explained and is one or the other preferable? is vertical or horizontal wagering better suited with RDSS2 (I like pick 3's and fours)?
is it best to pass a race when none of the top 3 or 4 are not a double digit odds at post time?
can someone tell me how to export the win/place horses of a past race to excel? this would save much time in keeping track of what are the recurring factors for the first two finishers.
thanks to all who gave me insight on my first thread!
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Dandy,
Original lines are useful to show what
actually happened, along with Matchup related visuals: raw times, running positions, gains in position and in lengths behind leader, calibre of competition faced (race classification), public opinion (odds); a visual picture of general Running Style (e.g. Early, Fighter Early, Early Presser, and the Other Than Early 'OTE' styles: Presser, Sustained); also, using the Projected Pace tool on raw running times: how horses will face the likely Early Pace (set by one of the EARLY horses), which Earlies are too slow and which OTEs close positionally closest to the fastest pace; 'comfort zone' of horses (i.e. can a horse
pass a certain number of horses after the 1st call or does it 'pout' if it finds itself too far back).
I always have one of my 2 PP Panels for each horse showing the Original data. This is critical to me for determining if a horse is a
Contender to Win today; or perhaps not to Win but perhaps finish in the money. Notice the colour coding. RED = 1, GREEN = 2, YELLOW = 3. No colour (especially at the later stages of a race = no hope (unless an excuse such as too fast pace, wrong surface or distance, trouble). Only
real Contenders have believable Adjusted values on all the rest of the screens, otherwise they may have earned the good 'numbers' from merely having faced fast pace-of race scenarios and having been 'sucked along' in mediocre fashion.
Adjusted values are found on ALL the rest of the screens: all distances equalized to today, all daily and inter track variants and running times adjusted to a
hypothetical norm (and NOT to today's track and distance!) By making all lines for all horses comparable to each other (such as is possible, and the more divergent from today's track, surface and distance group sprint/route - the more 'noise' there will be in those adjustments) - the differences between pace and final times for all runners, the deceleration and energy distribution differentials, and the gaps between and ranks of horses when compared to each other - all give authenticity to the Line Score (Bottom Line/Betting Line) and comparisons between horses, from which we are trying to make betting decisions.
So - use
BOTH Original data (to understand the Matchup and Contender status)
AND Adjusted data (ALL the other screens) to make your final determination about who can Win and who can finish in the money.
Though you did not ask - I consider the
tote board module in RDSS a critical tool to inject 'reality' into betting decisions (click the Supertote button on the RDSS Desktop and start from there). The top 4 Win odds ranks win a majority of races. The Tote Xray 'TX' top 3 ranks identify horses whose money across the WPS pools is skewed towards Win, compared to the other runners and compared to the overall pool totals. Even though the top ranks often tend to be unbettable low odds horses, 2nd-4th ranks are often 3-1 ... 10-1 and when they have good TX confirmation are good sources of longer prices, if not in the Win pools then in the Place pools. Highly ranked horses on the BL/BL with non-top 4 Win Odds ranks and no TX confirmation more often than not end up being exactly what the odds say: not good bets. The useful corollary to this is: high ranked horses with 4th+ odds ranks BUT still Top 3 ranked TX insight ARE often good bets (either to Win, or to Place and Show).
You like horizontal bets - great! It is often easier to determine who can Win (and who
cannot Win) than to determine who can Place or finish in the money (for vertical bets, though please investigate Methodology tools for identifying the 'counter-energy' horses in a race). The drawback (for me) of horizontal bets is that often the series is confounded by weird or practically unbettable races which you would not bet alone (2YOs, FTS, no-hope Maidens, new distances or surfaces, etc). But that's where you 'spread' or take a stab for the great prices. If you find such a race at the beginning of a horizontal bet, you can also use the info from the above noted tote analysis to get some nice insight. At Saratoga I have cashed some nice Win and Place tickets on FTS or 2TS based on tote action. Though I rarely currently play horizontals, I think rolling Daily Doubles are a great idea; also mild progression Win or Exacta parlays (for example, if you bet multiple horses per race and have a high hit rate). For myself, I work ALL straight pools to take money where it can be found (including Place and Show - for example a 1-2-6 unit progressive WPS wager); also Exacta and sometimes Trifecta. My longer term goals are to take money from EVERY pool offered, including all horizontals, but that takes more preparation, organization and tote board assistance than I currently have time for.
Re exporting data for decision modeling of Winners and Place horses: a good place to start is always the
RDSS FAQ section. Followed by the
Google Site Search tool, as Mark has mentioned. For example, here is the post in the FAQs discussion Decision Modeling and exporting data to Excel:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...23&postcount=7
All the best!
Ted