Thread: FG - Jan 14
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Old 01-14-2022, 10:20 PM   #9
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanBoals View Post
Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - 5 horses ran
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - 8 horses ran
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - 5 horses ran and still couldn't get winner in top 4
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - 5 horses ran
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - 8 horses ran
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - 9 horses ran
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - 7 horses ran
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - 9 horses ran
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - 12 horses ran

My first idea for a win betting strategy is to bet the two highest odds horses out of my top 3 picks, and pass any races with 6 or fewer betting choices. If I had done this I would have gotten the following:

Race 1 - 3, 6, 1, 4 - pass
Race 2 - 7, 1, 6, 2 - bet the 6 and the 7 - loss of $4
Race 3 - 3, 4, 2, 1 - pass
Race 4 - 3, 6, 4, 5 - pass
Race 5 - 2, 3, 5, 8 - bet the 2 and the 3 - loss of $4
Race 6 - 8, 9, 7, 4 - bet the 7 and 8 - profit of $27.60
Race 7 - 5, 2, 3, 1 - bet the 3 and 2 - profit of $12.20
Race 8 - 4, 5, 10, 8 - bet the 10 and the 5 - loss of $4
Race 9 - 9, 4, 12, 6 - bet the 4 and the 9 - profit of $7

in the case of race 9, the 4 and 12 both went off at 9/2, but 4 ranked higher, so it was the choice

Had I followed this strategy, which was suggested to me when I had trouble making a profit on my top 2 horses, I would have hit 3 out of 6 races for a total profit of $34.80 on $24 bet for an ROI of 1.45 which is a decent day. Had I bet the 9 and 12 on the last race, that would have been $23.80 profit on 2 out of 6 races for an ROI of about 1.00.

I have always heard you should box your top 3 picks for the exacta, but I don't think I would make a profit doing so since I do not get enough place horses in my top 3.

If you see I am doing something wrong or making a false assumption, please do not hesitate to point it out, I have lots of room for improvement and any help is appreciated.
What did you like about the 7 in Race 6, if I may ask?

I agree with Tim that any way you can make a profit is good. There's so many short prices. I had 8 of 9 in my top 4 yet it could easily be a losing day. I made no wagers.
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