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As a simple example, take a look at Richie's Indiana Downs thread in the Matcher's section. The 1st two ML favorites in an 8 furlong race were both sprinters whom in their last 10 races, showed no race longer than 6.5 furlongs. Can they win a route? Maybe, but as favorites, that's a chink in the armor. Add pace and race shape considerations, and the chinks grow larger.
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