Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 12-18-2009, 05:59 PM

One thing I see from Justin's posts that he is pretty unforgiving in his choice of pace lines. Another occasional poster on this site is pretty much the same way in his choice of lines. If horse has raced in the last 30 days he pretty much uses it for today. Maybe I've been giving too much credit to these animals (i.e. looking for too good of a race).

Anyway, I don't disagree with how Justin posted and came up with his winner, but I do have a follow up on one of my past posts that might have some effect on other than win placings tonite.

The 6 Valiant Humor can win either on or just off pace and the pace tonite looks about 22.2 45.3 or so, so he won't fade as bad as he did in last. VH won 10 back at Penn for Cl 5000 and comes back after a competitive Cl 4000 loss at FL. Race 10 is almost exactly the estimated pace for tonight and he won handily.

Unadjusted TPR numbers:
From race 10 (rough #) early 92; late 84, total 176
From race 1 early 95.5; late 76.5, total 172

This horse looks like a true 2:1 horse. The early today at first call is 4 ticks slower than race 10; the 2nd call is 4 ticks slower, so adding 8 ticks to the 76.5 = 84.5 (makes his final fraction a shade less than 25 seconds and his total TPR = 176.5). So I think the six does well with this pace tonight on or just off the lead. I think the 10 beats, but maybe not.

If you look at 10 he ran 25 second last furlongs in all his best races, but no better, even when the pace was slower! I think he tops out at 25, so that any other close-to-the-pace horse with a 25 second closing fraction will be competitive.

If they run 45.2 or 45.3 I think winning time is 110.2 or 110.3 which is still good enough to win and still the only horse finishing near that is the 6 with the 7 as a contra closer (3 places in last three races).

I think a 6-7-10 box is in order.

Amazing, isnt it, when someone else, meaning Justin, lays it out so effortlessly?

Justin, thanks for laying this race out for us.

12-18-2009, 05:59 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Thanks for the post and another possible view One thing I see from Justin's posts that he is pretty unforgiving in his choice of pace lines. Another occasional poster on this site is pretty much the same way in his choice of lines. If horse has raced in the last 30 days he pretty much uses it for today. Maybe I've been giving too much credit to these animals (i.e. looking for too good of a race). Anyway, I don't disagree with how Justin posted and came up with his winner, but I do have a follow up on one of my past posts that might have some effect on other than win placings tonite. The 6 Valiant Humor can win either on or just off pace and the pace tonite looks about 22.2 45.3 or so, so he won't fade as bad as he did in last. VH won 10 back at Penn for Cl 5000 and comes back after a competitive Cl 4000 loss at FL. Race 10 is almost exactly the estimated pace for tonight and he won handily. Unadjusted TPR numbers: From race 10 (rough #) early 92; late 84, total 176 From race 1 early 95.5; late 76.5, total 172 This horse looks like a true 2:1 horse. The early today at first call is 4 ticks slower than race 10; the 2nd call is 4 ticks slower, so adding 8 ticks to the 76.5 = 84.5 (makes his final fraction a shade less than 25 seconds and his total TPR = 176.5). So I think the six does well with this pace tonight on or just off the lead. I think the 10 beats, but maybe not. If you look at 10 he ran 25 second last furlongs in all his best races, but no better, even when the pace was slower! I think he tops out at 25, so that any other close-to-the-pace horse with a 25 second closing fraction will be competitive. If they run 45.2 or 45.3 I think winning time is 110.2 or 110.3 which is still good enough to win and still the only horse finishing near that is the 6 with the 7 as a contra closer (3 places in last three races). I think a 6-7-10 box is in order. Amazing, isnt it, when someone else, meaning Justin, lays it out so effortlessly? Justin, thanks for laying this race out for us.