View Single Post
Old 03-17-2019, 02:39 PM   #5
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
Horse A shows a +EV of 1.20

Horse B shows a -EV of 0.90

Hose C shows a +EV of 1.08

Horses A and C are +EV

The optimal bet is to use a group overlay calculation of the Kelly Criterion which is beyond the scope of this discussion -- best to research it on your own depending on your math skills.

Next best would be to bet on both A and C, in proportion to their odds (assuming they don't change after the last flash before the gates open) -- that is bet 2.67 units on A and 1.00 units on C.

Or, you could use bastardized Kelly, which purports to bet your edge divided by your odds (again, this assumes you REALLY know your edge AND your odds): bet 0.067 of your bankroll on A, and 0.01 of your bankroll on C. Most will use half, quarter, or even one-tenth of Kelly due the bankroll swings.

Hope this help.

Richard
rdiam is offline   Reply With Quote