[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?

Bill,

For right now, this takes me further than I want to go, but I promise I will come back to your question.