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Old 10-24-2008, 10:15 AM   #20
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
If you are using RDSS (or Val4 or Spec160) I would be very cautious about accepting DMR 2008 lines when using the 50% DTV adjustment, and expecting that they compare well to lines from other tracks, distances and surfaces. All 2008 DMR poly lines are about 30 DTV points faster than norm (i.e. the 2007 norm) thus, the pars for the current DMR poly surface distances should really be about 30 points faster (in which case, the DTVs would be around 0). We won't get this change from TrackMaster until January's re-normalization of all ITVs for 2008.

Try this in RDSS: in the Configure window, change the DTV % to 100 (i.e. accept ALL of the DTV adjutment, not jut the normal 50% of it). For the DMR 2008 lines with high negative numbers (i.e. FASTER than norm), the final and incremental times are slowed down by the DTV. If you permit them to be slowed down by ALL of the DTV and not just HALF of it, the times will end up much slower, Total Energies will be lower and horses ranked off those DMR lines will rank worse. This exercise of changing the DTV% to 100 will prove that (unless you're only comparing DMR 2008 lines to each other) they will always be overrated compared to other tracks.

So, if you accept this, then switch back to the default DTV% (50%) and pick different lines for those horses which look good only from DMR, or pick not their best DMR line.

That said, it still doesn't help Indian Blessing much, by my readouts. For a price, I'm leaning towards OTEs Zaftig and Tiz Elemental (way too many NTL Earlies here, but no-one I can see who can steal it). I would not leave Indian Blessing out of exotics. The race is still a mish-mash and way too uncertain to bet it if I didn't have to (which I don't...)

Good luck!

Ted

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