[Mitch44]

While fewer horses start to the outside it must be quantified with full fields. A post # 12 can't be used if the race only has 6 horses in it which distorts the facts. Only like scenario's can be used.

Even with that I still believe post position is irrelevant and I've have never considered it a factor or deserved my consideration because all post positions studies fail to consider the horse in that position / gate stall. In other words its class or if it is a top 3 contender. The best horse wins and overcomes or does what it has to in order to win.
Here's another that blows PP studies, horses on the inside feel inferior to an outside horse. It has to do with birth and always following the mother around on the left side. It's much more pronounced in fillies & mares than colts & male horses.

Ditto for weight considerations. Weight has more effect on horses in form and once in racing condition is nullified and also nullified by class. The best horses carry more weight and still win. In NY once a year in the fall they have a high-weight race (135lb.) and the best horse still wins.


I agree that many racing stats are flawed and can not be accepted at face value. To get true value one must do their own research. Even the old favorites winning 33% is flawed as fields are smaller and Grade 1 horses win much higher while NW2L teardown the average. Averages are deceptive as are most stats.


Mitch44