Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 08-17-2021, 06:03 PM

Thanks Mitch,

One thing I was surprised at was the LB at 2nd Call data and how much of it was a lot closer than what TIM, LT1, had produced, but having looked at my paceline choices it was clear that several were from lines where the horse was more than 4 L back and it was the internal adjustments in the program that made it come together so that, overall, 63% of winners were no more than 2.5 L back at the 2c call once the program adjusted for variants, etc.

For pacelines I try to find representative lines near zero track variant and no more than +/- 5, sometimes +/- 10. I think that above -15 fast tracks give too much advantage to horses with those lines (unless all the contenders have representative lines at that amount), so as a consequence my lines may go a lot deeper in the PPs than others to find those lines, BUT, the lines I choose are within the horse's normal/average running line based on its TPR style. Also, no off tracks on dirt, but firm and good on turf are okay, for me.

08-17-2021, 06:03 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Thanks Mitch, One thing I was surprised at was the LB at 2nd Call data and how much of it was a lot closer than what TIM, LT1, had produced, but having looked at my paceline choices it was clear that several were from lines where the horse was more than 4 L back and it was the internal adjustments in the program that made it come together so that, overall, 63% of winners were no more than 2.5 L back at the 2c call once the program adjusted for variants, etc. For pacelines I try to find representative lines near zero track variant and no more than +/- 5, sometimes +/- 10. I think that above -15 fast tracks give too much advantage to horses with those lines (unless all the contenders have representative lines at that amount), so as a consequence my lines may go a lot deeper in the PPs than others to find those lines, BUT, the lines I choose are within the horse's normal/average running line based on its TPR style. Also, no off tracks on dirt, but firm and good on turf are okay, for me.