Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 08-17-2021, 07:35 PM

I gave each horse a line consistent with its history as close to the race distance as possible, then during analysis I eliminated down to those horses with the four main factors with top 5 ratings.

Be careful with horses that fail to hit the top 5 in BPP. If you hover your mouse over the BPP column for the #5 horse, check out how close that is only missing a top 5 rank in BPP. RDSS rarely, if ever shows ties in BPP, so a 6th ranked BPP could only be 0.1 of a point below #5 and might be a real contender if it ranks top 5 or better in the other main factor categories.

By my count there were 23 races out of the 144 studied that were missing one or more of the four main factors ranked 5 or better, or 121/144 = 84% of all WINNERS had all four of the main factors in the top FIVE ranks, irrespective of distance.

You can play with each distance to see where the anomalies exist.

08-17-2021, 07:35 PM	#6
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	I gave each horse a line consistent with its history as close to the race distance as possible, then during analysis I eliminated down to those horses with the four main factors with top 5 ratings. Be careful with horses that fail to hit the top 5 in BPP. If you hover your mouse over the BPP column for the #5 horse, check out how close that is only missing a top 5 rank in BPP. RDSS rarely, if ever shows ties in BPP, so a 6th ranked BPP could only be 0.1 of a point below #5 and might be a real contender if it ranks top 5 or better in the other main factor categories. By my count there were 23 races out of the 144 studied that were missing one or more of the four main factors ranked 5 or better, or 121/144 = 84% of all WINNERS had all four of the main factors in the top FIVE ranks, irrespective of distance. You can play with each distance to see where the anomalies exist.