Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
I believe your right in Tam 1st..
the 4 is eliminated due to not meeting the POR of 57....
in Dave's concept , you bet horses over 7/2 to win and box exacta's with the contenders but not sure of what to do when theres more than one lower than 7/2
lets watch race 1...
the 3 is in as a early and has top late fig...and is presently 9/2
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Hi Mike,
From the results we have, 7/2 seems to be too low as a cutoff for a profitable win bet. I believe Dave has claimed a win rate slightly over 80% for New Pace, but the win % for the contenders as a group as been pretty steady at about 70% over 800 or so races. Take a look at Bill Lyster's numbers for 500, which are taken from a dozen tracks, and are consistent with the hit rates of races put up by Snake and Richie. But it also looks like the contenders differ in hit rate - just as an approximation, the E1 looks to be about .22 (7/2), the E2 - .12 (7-1), the L1 and L2, both around .17 or .18 (roughly 9/2). If you want to bet any single horse to win, obviously you need to go an odds tick or two higher. And if you want to bet more than one horse, you need to go another tick higher for each.
However, from what Dave has said, this was his intention. This is a value-based (longshot) program. Actually the odds are close to, if a little worse, than Richie's profitable automated paceline from a couple of years back. At one point he said, 'Hey, do I need to hit longshots just to make a profit?' I think with his or this automated program, the answer is yes.
Cheers,
B Jennet