[lsosa54]

It will be very interesting to see if any horse that has not run on a synthetic surface before, such as Curlin, the 3 Europeans, Fairbanks, and Smooth Air run to their potential. This may well be the critical handicapping factor.

If you use each European's best Racing Post rating of 129-130+ and translate them to the Beyer scale, you would get Beyers of 113-114. Curlin and Student Council ran 112's in 2008 and the best Santa Anita Beyer in 2008 belongs to Go Between with a 109, so the Europeans would appear to be competitive. While this conversion is by no means exact, I don't think it's completely crazy either.

Obvious problem is the Europeans all come from turf courses, and only Henry's comes from a firm course condition. We know the Duke can get the 10f, but can he get them on Pro Ride? We don't even know if Henry or Raven's can get the 10f, let alone get it on Pro Ride.

If you believe in Tomlinson's breeding info, Duke has a distance rating of 317 and we know he can get the distance. Henry has a 348 which would SUGGEST he could get it but Raven's has a rating of 284, which might SUGGEST he would not go 10f comfortably.

Also keep in mind the early pace in those European turf routes tends to be pretty slow. HOWEVER, to be honest, I don't see an absolutely "need to lead" horse in this race.

Will Casino Drive try to steal it from the inside or will Fairbanks rush up for the lead from the outside with Colonel John pressing? Based on the European's comments, Henry and Raven's should both go positionally sustained here. Duke, on the other hand, has won by "tracking the leaders" and just missed winning twice on the lead. He lost by a nk and 1 length and on both occassions, was a fighter until the finish line. Can he handle the early pace here - it may not be that fast.

So, come to think of it, early pace and positioning AND Pro Ride may be the key factors here.

Whatever you do, don't take a short price.