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I would advise beginners not to keep a track model or profile.
Regardless of how we started out Bill things have changed, and through the great research of Sartin he changed also. We should adapt. We also should adapt and overcome to take advantage of all his hard work to get more winners, which was Sartin's goal.
Yes most certainly Sartin grew after years of trials and testing. And those testers provided valuable insights that were tested, thankfully he left with the best. We reap the rewards of all that hard work. Sartin said; "it took me over 20 years to perfect the deceleration formula."
Your right where Doc says he reviews the previous days results, however where does he say he recommends that we do the same? He also was smart enough to check POW not POH times, which most would do.
In my post I did say that keeping track of 3rd FR can be beneficial however its not a necessity. If one wants to waste their time their free to do that.
"Never depend on someone else's E-L Model Graph along with the other graphs and readouts." pg. 30 Fu # 86. The reason is their choice of contenders and pace lines may be different than yours. Use only your own when it wins or finishes close. "
pg. 30 FU # 86 " However, for those with any degree of short term anxiety, the E-L Graph, along with the other graphs and key readouts, are most useful for separating Ties, helping users of all our advance programs make correct decisions." No model or track profile is needed for this, the result of the facts on these screen are a result of your contenders and pace line chosen and the Match-Up within that data you supplied.
That data is carefully weighted not averaged. Averaging makes the best look worse and the worse look better. Somewhat like the Bell curve. The reason there is such a disparity with your Model Bill on E-L is that each race is different with a different set of horses and in essence a different Match-Up.
As I said tracking 3rd FR does have some merit as it'll show horses that decelerate too fast to be a winner. Also % Med properly used and the match up as employed, shows and accounts for all this and is within the ratings. While not necessary to track I believe it will though give some insight to those that don't understand deceleration. Note: See my post on deceleration.
Bill I hope you have a big weekend and slay them. Lots of good racing this weekend.
Mitch44
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