Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 08-18-2021, 02:34 PM

Bob,

Any variant below -15 and above + 15 is abnormal. When a variant falls outside this range the accuracy of it comes into question. Lets say a variant is +20, well is it that or a +21 or +25? Especially on dirt off tracks, or high class turf races that are left on the turf after real heavy rain. What is the difference between heavy or slow turf line? View abnormal variants with suspicion. There are degrees of heavy, degrees of slow and even degrees of fast. Not all fast tracks are the same fastness.

Any Factor in racing must be put in context or perspective, this includes variants. One should ask; What is the norm for the field or better yet what is the norm for my contenders?

If your using the recommended settings the program should take care of these inequities; Using 50% of the variant as suggested by Sartin your actually using 7.5 not -15 or +15. That's plenty.

In the DRF a 10 variant would equal 5 lengths, therefore you can see how easily you can adjust yourself right out of a race, or in other words make a horse a contender for win or downgrade from win. In RDSS its hard to put it into beaten lengths because the adjustments vary by distance of Fraction etc. so its not clear and concise but its there.

I know some one will ask; What if 4 contenders are all -under 0 and one is +15? Well putting it in context I would say its abnormal which is why I review variants after all lines are chosen. This really doesn't happen too often but can happen. I.E. an East Coast horse where tracks tend to be slower ships to say a California track. Or vise verses. I would look for another line, and if none than trust the program. You won't see this often but is a possibility particularity on Breeders Cup Day.

Hope that answers your question Bob.

Mitch44

08-18-2021, 02:34 PM	#21
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	Bob, Any variant below -15 and above + 15 is abnormal. When a variant falls outside this range the accuracy of it comes into question. Lets say a variant is +20, well is it that or a +21 or +25? Especially on dirt off tracks, or high class turf races that are left on the turf after real heavy rain. What is the difference between heavy or slow turf line? View abnormal variants with suspicion. There are degrees of heavy, degrees of slow and even degrees of fast. Not all fast tracks are the same fastness. Any Factor in racing must be put in context or perspective, this includes variants. One should ask; What is the norm for the field or better yet what is the norm for my contenders? If your using the recommended settings the program should take care of these inequities; Using 50% of the variant as suggested by Sartin your actually using 7.5 not -15 or +15. That's plenty. In the DRF a 10 variant would equal 5 lengths, therefore you can see how easily you can adjust yourself right out of a race, or in other words make a horse a contender for win or downgrade from win. In RDSS its hard to put it into beaten lengths because the adjustments vary by distance of Fraction etc. so its not clear and concise but its there. I know some one will ask; What if 4 contenders are all -under 0 and one is +15? Well putting it in context I would say its abnormal which is why I review variants after all lines are chosen. This really doesn't happen too often but can happen. I.E. an East Coast horse where tracks tend to be slower ships to say a California track. Or vise verses. I would look for another line, and if none than trust the program. You won't see this often but is a possibility particularity on Breeders Cup Day. Hope that answers your question Bob. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 08-18-2021 at 02:40 PM.