[Bill Lyster]

This race is from last Sunday at Santa Anita. Excuse my pencil scratches on the attached. I disregarded the winner- I will explain as I go thru the entries - but I thought the race fit with The Hat's teachings on Matchup, especially for paceless races.

This is a race for 4 YO & up, claiming price 12,500 non winners of two LIFE

#1: Prior to its open maiden win the horse showed sustained running from 8th position in an 8 horse race. The 6 furlong time of that race is about 111.3 (in tenths); its maiden win in a route came via fractions of 112.4. In line 2 the horse ran in an optional claiming race for NW1x and was entered not to be claimed. In line 2 he ran in a race with internal fractions at least as fast as any previous sprint race, raced closer to the lead in that race and its extracted 6 furlong time from that race (110.4 - 0.4 +1/2 of 8 lengths at 6 furlong call) is 110.80.

You will see that no other horse in this race broke its maiden in allowance company, and that only the 4 horse race in a stake race, that being a Cal-bred stake. The connections of this horse thought enough of him to enter him in a Grade 2 stake immediately after its maiden win - he finished last.

Prior to its maiden win the horse started a race, but was pulled up and vanned off - usually a red flag at least for me. Less than a month later he ran 7f and closed resolutely. In its last race it pulled up and was vanned off again. Today, 36 days later, he won, repeating the good effort after the last vanning incident. I could not get by two van offs no matter how he ran thereafter. My bad.

Until this race, this horse had run against the best company of any horse in this field by quite a lot. (yeah, I know the horses don't know about class!!)

#2: last line, best time after its maiden race is 111.6. Had 2 chances after maiden to match maiden time and folded vs winners. Sustained horse, might be SP, but lost position at 2nd call in last w/o excuse. Out

#3: S type, best time 112.2. Really ugly and out.

#4: P or S/P, used last race, but note that except for maiden win 2 yrs ago, horse has rarely gained between stretch and finish, usually losing ground xcept once in a blue moon or so. Last line is probable pace of race at 22-45-57-109.6. This horse looks likely to inherit the lead off its 3-3-2 with 1.5 lengths of lead in last, but has never got the lead before the end of a race and is likely candidate to freak if it happens.

#5 S type; best times are 110.6 off last, preceeded by 111 maiden win. A contender that passes horses and makes up ground from a 21.6-44.4 paceline. Keep for now.

#6: EP off maiden win, could be E type, but time was 111.6. If running style stays the same he will either have to run early today and flame out, or be sustained and have to pass too many horses. We'll see.

#7: I tagged this horse as an E, but its 1/15, could not make lead at 22.2 in last two and faded badly. Out.

#8: E type. I thought last race made this horse a hidden early horse; was in a tandem with the 5, held well thru middle of race, then faded. Best time was 110.8 off last or 110.7 from line two. Note that maiden win came from open length lead with some fighting ability at 46.3, not the best 2nd fraction that could develop today. Even though it looks like off the last race the horse might lead this race, its only successful first call leads were 23-46. If that is all he can do today, he can't win. I kept him in the mix until it was clear that there were better horses.

#9: S type, has pretty much run from the back of every field its been in. Could run 110.8 off its last or 110.5 off the 7f race in line 4. Ran closer to the pace in last in a good time up until the stretch, while passing all but one horse. Contender.

#10: S type, with 112.2 mdn win. OUT.

#11: Another slow horse that might press but in slow times, OUT

This leaves me with:
#1: S - 110.8 off of 22-45-57.5-110 from positions 4-4-6
#4: P - 110.4 off of 22-45-57.0-109.3 from positions 3-3-2
#5: S - 110.6 off of 21.6-44.8-57.0-110.6 from positions 9-7-3-2
#9: S - 110.5 off of 21.8-44.6-57.6-110.2 from positions 9-7-7

I eliminated the 8 because best 2C was 46 and best stretch call was 58. The 4-7-8 were early but times were slow - eliminated, so for me this became a paceless race.

My picks were the 4 and 9, with maybe the 8 good for 2nd, but looking at who could run closest to the pace you would have to take the 1 and 4, assuming you could get by the vanned off twice business. As it turned out the 1 and 4 finished 1st, 4th, the 9 finished 2nd and the 8 finished 3rd.

The Hat also said that horses that had run against faster paces and were meeting slower paces today, might run closer to the lead in the slower paced race. I say this because the 9 ran 7-4-2 in its 23-45.8 last race vs 9-7-2 in its fastest race, so the Hat's voodoo might have made the running line for the 9 more like the 7-4-2. So upgrading this horse makes it a better closer than the 5 with a better final time.