Yesterday, I decided to experiment out of my comfort zone with RDSS a little bit. The "Original" screen (your traditional "raw" pacelines) provides a bevy of information to the horseplayer: position, beaten lengths, moves (early, middle and late), race class, final odds, speed ratings, DTV... I can go on...) but how do you synthesize that information to narrow a race down to its fine tuning? Some here use the Paceline Manual guidelines, including the +, 0 and (+) form cycle analysis for charting where a horse stands in its current cycle. Some use a firm set of rules governing specific conditions where they will accept a line for usage. Others use tools such as APV% and Class Rating to guide their decisions.
As for my handicapping, I have used practically a combination of many factors. Right now, I seem to have settled on rating races as +, 0 and (+), while using the program's Perceptor ratings, TE, TPR Early/Late graphing in tandem with Velocity PoH with ESP and %Median. It has worked for me wonderfully. The bottom line has been kind to me in April, in part due to a tune up I did with Mitch44 at the end of last month, which steered me in this direction somewhat. One thing I cannot seem to get past in my head, is rating races that while TE and Perceptor and Velocity and ESP/%Med may rate it as a top race or one of the top races, traditional analysis and thinking dictate that it's a weak or poor race to use. I have always been in the mindset that the horse "should show something" noteworthy in their past performances so that it gets me interested in using it. This is where "old school" and "new school" tend to clash. "Old school" dictates that the horse didn't show anything significant, yet "new school" tools indicate otherwise, i.e. hidden form/speed/class invisible to those using traditional PPs or methods. It's a conundrum that I struggle to come to grips with, despite the fact that no one thing ever wins 100% of the time.
So yesterday, I decided to take a couple of races, ignore the "Original" screen, and allow my decisions to take hold based on my analysis of the Velocity PoH screen (using the F1-F2-F3, SC, Decel, %Med and ESP), the Early/Late Graphing (based on the TPR), and the Primary screen (Perceptor, VDC%, Primary Factors % from best).
Here is an example of such a race. This was yesterday's 2nd from Tampa Bay. Here are the "traditional" PPs for the winner, Buch Of Daisies (#1):
Based on its most recent paceline raw, I would be hard pressed to go back any further. It is simply a poor performance last out in this class at a similar distance to today's race. However, that last race was 49 days ago, so the horse is really starting a new cycle with today (yesterday's) race. So now, we do some digging. Here are the Velocity PoH and Primary screens:
Immediately, the first thing I notice in the Primary screen is that this was this horse's worst performance from a Perceptor standpoint. The Primary Factors %'s are at or near the bottom in all categories. So, using this paceline would be incorrect, as it will not do this horse any justice whatsoever. Also, looking at Velocity, that horse ran an "E" ESP at a 69.8 %Med, meaning this one wasted a good chunk of energy in the 1st 2/3rds of the race. If you look at its visual run style from that race, it wasn't even close to the lead. It was having to go fast to try and keep up with that day's pace, and fell on its head in the 3rd fraction. Just an overall "bad" performance.
Line 2 would be a "non-comparable" performance. It was 1m40yds. However, measuring this horse against itself, it showed its best Turn Time (TT) ability, and ran a 68.9 %Med ("EP" ESP).
Line 3 is a 5.5F race in today's class, a furlong less than today's race. It was also 93 days ago, but was the start of that one's more recent form cycle before this recent break. First thing I notice is that this was that runner's best Perceptor in recent times, only 2.8% worse than its September maiden breaker. Its Primary Factor %'s are only a percentage or two off of its best race. I then look at the Velocity, and it ran its best F1 and 2nd best F3, TS and Decel that day. Its ESP was a "P" and %Med was 68.7. Looking at that and its other ESPs and %Meds, this horse is capable of harnessing its energy effectively when it runs well. On TE, it was its best ever (166.4). Since it ran well fresh off that race, I chose it as my "representative" paceline.
Looking at E/L graphs, it shows more Early than Late, but even its early races are not off the charts, so to me, using its late races (which were small sticks) was OK.
Here is how it matched up on BL/BL:
Based on odds, and a contentious Primary LS and BL/BL, #2 was worth a Win bet at 12-1. Here was the chart for this race:
Those two "awful" performances built up your price with this one. It is not a horse that will be had easily. This is where creative thinking with RDSS comes into play. Answering questions such as "how will it handle running off this current layoff?" and determining the "correct" line for the start of a new cycle are crucial in being able to sniff this runner out. Not to mention that 3YOs often can and do improve without warning this time of year, so you have to be ready.
I would love to hear what others are thinking.