Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Handicapping Blind

Mitch44 · 04-22-2017, 01:10 PM

The preceptor is a tool that is generally under used. In this case its best preceptor's are at distances of 5.0 to 6.0 F which is an indication of where the horse should be placed. It also has failed at longer than 6F twice. it appears in those two races they attempted to change his running style and rate the horses which he didn't take kindly to and resulted in its worse races .
Claimed in next to last the new trainer will probably revert back to its normal running style if he knows what he's doing. BTW its not unusual for a smart trainer to experiment with a young horse to find its best dis., surface etc. Of course some other questions here are how good is this trainer with claims and how has its works been with these last two races etc. Some train at farms away from the track etc. however most don't have that access. Lt1 keeps a record of any trainer that wins off a layoff therefore he only gets fooled once. Good PP's can be a great aide for this kind of additional information.

The bottom line here is to do a through analysis of your horses. Use the tools you have to their advantage. There are so many reasons for a poor performance so don't get locked into last line. Use a consistent procedure!! Believe it or not there are trainers that place a horse wrong for 5,6 and more races in a row. There are a variety of reasons for this such as no races being written for what the horses needs, owners afraid to lose it so keep too far up in class and of course being incompetent being the biggest. This stuff all has an effect on the pace line you pick. You need to apply a consistent procedure and where ever that takes you is where you go.

The same way you get the horse that pays $5.60 is the same way you get the one that pays $26.40. BTW Jeebs nice one, congrats.

Mitch44

04-22-2017, 01:10 PM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	The preceptor is a tool that is generally under used. In this case its best preceptor's are at distances of 5.0 to 6.0 F which is an indication of where the horse should be placed. It also has failed at longer than 6F twice. it appears in those two races they attempted to change his running style and rate the horses which he didn't take kindly to and resulted in its worse races . Claimed in next to last the new trainer will probably revert back to its normal running style if he knows what he's doing. BTW its not unusual for a smart trainer to experiment with a young horse to find its best dis., surface etc. Of course some other questions here are how good is this trainer with claims and how has its works been with these last two races etc. Some train at farms away from the track etc. however most don't have that access. Lt1 keeps a record of any trainer that wins off a layoff therefore he only gets fooled once. Good PP's can be a great aide for this kind of additional information. The bottom line here is to do a through analysis of your horses. Use the tools you have to their advantage. There are so many reasons for a poor performance so don't get locked into last line. Use a consistent procedure!! Believe it or not there are trainers that place a horse wrong for 5,6 and more races in a row. There are a variety of reasons for this such as no races being written for what the horses needs, owners afraid to lose it so keep too far up in class and of course being incompetent being the biggest. This stuff all has an effect on the pace line you pick. You need to apply a consistent procedure and where ever that takes you is where you go. The same way you get the horse that pays $5.60 is the same way you get the one that pays $26.40. BTW Jeebs nice one, congrats. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-22-2017 at 01:27 PM.