hello Jeebs
First off, congrats on the very nice winner.
Secondly Thank you for explaining your look at this race,
Third Thank you for asking how we all use our toolboxes to win with the Sartin Methodology.
Unless you are a Hat type matcher ,and you can visualize and
organize the race in your minds eye just from the total PP's of each horse's
ability You have to have a pace line
If we use Sartin Programs we have to imput something,
Bottom line Its all about the conenders and the match up of the race based on selecting contenders and entering representative pacelines
To me the key to winning is to find a comfortable consistent method
It really is vital to find a comfortable set of guidelines
and stay consistent.
Yesterday's first two races at Tampa are a great example of how it is important to be consistent,
I did not work race 2, I worked race 1 because you posted it in the selections area , I worked the race but based on my approach
of using Phase 1. I found the race unplayable and passed
The winner who I marked as a non contender won at 10/1
here is a link to my post
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...12&postcount=7
What I would like to do is show how doing the exact same steps
from race 1 I would have got the winner in race 2 at even a better 12/1 price
Race 1 and Race 2 are worked the same but the conditions of each race are different , So I do make some decisions differently based on the conditions of the race.
Race 1 was for 3+ males state breds and race 2 is for open
company 3 year old only Fillies.
I have stacked the two races together Race 2 wll be in
BLUE TYPE
Race 1 8.2 furlongs 3 + CL s8 Non 3 L
State bred non winners of 3 races lifetime
Race 2 6.5 CL16000 3 year olds only Fillies
Race 1
step 1
Top 5 TPR last line
4,5,7,6,2
Fulcrum POR 85.5 Tandem horses 4 and 5
Race 2
Step 1
Top 5 TPR last line
4 2 7 6 5
Fulcrum POR 79.0 Horse 4
Notes
Horse 1
Private Sale Sustained Only shows 1 win in 24 races . All its shown races are sprints Line 1 is it's only win . a MC 8 @7 furlongs against a 81 POR
Non Contender
Race 2
Horse 1
Buch Of Daisies Presser 2 for 6
Line 1 is a 0 race at 7 furlongs Its the last race of that form cycle
Line 2 is excused , Its also a 0 race is a non comparable route
8.2 furlongs Line 3 is a recent + paceline . Today starts a new form cycle
after 49 day rest , Line 3 is also after a 47 day rest so I can rate it
Horse 2
Trismen Early 2 for 8 lifetime Both wins came on the turf
Morning line favorite at 2/1 and I have no line Danger !!
Horse 2
Phenix Presser 2 for 11 Shows no recent plus pace lines sprinting
Horse 3
Manny Blue Boy NF 2 for 34 No recent form against open company
Horse 3
Playful Early Presser 1 for 6 Its only plus paceline was it's maiden win
214 days ago It showed nothing in line 1 after a 160 day layoff
all other Lines are over 200 days old and as a 2 year old
no line
Horse 4
Ten Guitars Sustained 2 for 18. Line 1 is a recent
plus paceline 20 days ago 3/1 ml contender Fulcrum horse with the 5
Horse 4
Perennis Early Presser 1 for 8 Line 1 is a slow pace wire to wire
maiden claiming 16000 win line 42 days ago. Today starts a new form cycle
first try against winners. Fulcrum horse
Horse 5
Arangol Sustained 2 for 46 Line 1 is a recent
plus paceline 20 days ago co fulcrum with horse 4
Horse 5
Natchez Pass Sustained Presser 1 for 11 Morning line favorite
2/1 line 3 is a recent plus paceline 71 days ago , Exact same conditions as today
Line 1 and 2 are turf routes
Line 3 is the line
Horse 6
Brays Secret Early Presser 2 for 15 No recent plus pacelines routing
Matter of fact the only plus race is line 3 at 7 furlongs,
7 furlong races generally are adjusted too fast on the EPR and races at 8.2 furlongs also are adjusted funky,
this is a bad mix so i avoid red sticks over 20 No Line but will be a issue
Horse 6
G.I. Girl Early 1 for 6 Line 1 is a recent plus paceline at the exact same conditions as today. Today starts a new form cycle No workouts since last race 28 days ago
Line 1
Horse 7
Unbridled Majesty Sustained Presser 2 for 35 Line 1 rates well relatively to this group on EPR and TPR but It is a 0 race.
It comes out of the same race as the 3, 4 and 5. Line 2 and 3 are plus lines. I just can't get past line 1
Horse 7
Babie Monster Early Presser 1 for 11 Line 2 is a MC16000 win line
Its recent 49 days ago sprinting here at tampa but at 7 furlongs
Line 1 is excused, It is a turf route Now works since last race 28 days ago
Line 2 is the line
That is it . I have marked my running styles and pace lines for my contenders
This is an open 16000 Claimer so horse 1 and 2 have 2 wins the other fillies
only have won their maiden races
Unlike in race 1 where I had too many issues
in race 2 using the exact same logic and guidelines for contenders and pace lines I would be confident to work the race
Now I will go to the PMTR /TPR screen
well there is no doubt the 1 is a sure bet #1
Top 3 EPR Top 2 LPR Top TPR
