[chris]

Pattern match: a horse is repeating a pattern that led to his last victory.

I find that a Pattern match often trumps all other considerations! The elegance of the match is that it's overlooked by the uniniated and by many handicappers as well. Now pattern match horses don't always win; but then what does? When they do however, it's often at double digit odds.

I find them by perusing the the form and paying particular attention to the circumstances of the horses last win. It's frosting on the cake when that win came in at double digits. Well there's just such a steed running in Aqueduct's 9th race wearing that profile. His last line is sufficiently ugly to put most people off, it's identical to line that preceeded his last win (and yes, he is an infrequent winner; this alone is worth a couple of ticks in the odds)

I believe you can find him if you're interested. He's 2nd off a lay-off, same as before; he flashed speed for 6 furlongs, same as before; he paid off at 21-1 in that win and today he's 30-1 in the morning line, not quite same as before, but close enough. And finally, he's returning to a venue where he's had success

This concept, though simple in its tenets, is not well understood and not part of the handicapping lore, and there in lies it's value.

Regards,
Chris