View Single Post
Old 07-25-2012, 08:29 PM   #5
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,865
We thought long and hard about how to improve the rules. We wanted to discourage what I would call 'frivolous' Place wagers which only serve to increase the Hit Rate but do not really make money, or which misuse a wager unit over the long term.

Betting on a legitimate longshot to Place is a good idea, and there are numerous examples of it in the July and June Contests. We arrived at the rules modification: to increase Hit Rate the Place mutuel needs to meet or beat the Win mutuel. To permit a 'hit' on any Place mutuel, regardless of how much it pays, permits bets like $100 Place on an EVEN odds winner. This kind of bet would increase Hit Rate, but it would not be profitable in the long run, and likely the same person who might bet it in the Contest, would never think of doing it in reality.

I agree with Bill - it is unfortunate that if you have identified the best bet in the race, and it is on a horse who stands a better chance to Place than to Win - why be denied a legitimate 'hit' if that's the bet you were really aiming for, just because your longshot horse happens to win (and you only bet it to Place)? The solution, of course, is to have something to Win on it however small - then it's always a hit.

Our new rule about Place bets only counting as a hit if they pay more than the Win Mutuel may not be pure and perfect, but I do think it tightens up the intent of rewarding good Place bets with a hit, while preventing or discouraging bad Place bets. And the notion of Hit rate, and a rewarding a Hit rate > 50%, encourages the consistency factor we wanted to emphasize in this Contest.

A reminder - as our rules currently stand for August, you do get a hit on a Place bet - if the Place mutuel is equal to or greater than the Win mutuel.

If anyone has any further ideas to help tighten up the Contest, while not overly complicating it, we would sincerely invite comments here - before the beginning of August!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote