Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
The fastest prep race occurred in the Sunland Derby, a grade 3 event. The mile time was 134.60 (in fifths) and Cutting Humor ran 5th - 4th -3rd to the stretch call being 1.75 - 1.50 -0 lengths behind at those calls. His 6F to finish split was 36.75. A slower pace would help him a bit; but I might defer on him being as it was only a grade 3 - but don't forget Mine that Bird came from there to win at boxcars.
Other than that the best prep mile time was the one Tacitus ran against - 135.40. His position and lengths back were 6-7-3; 10-8-2. his 6f to finish split was 37.13.
The pace of the race looks to be 47+/111+ and Maximum Security went wire to wire running a 136.0 and finished in 36.00. Omaha Beach and Game Winner can run with him and I would slightly favor Game Winner over Omaha.
Max, Game Winner and Cutting Humor are my win horses. OB, Cutting Humor and Long Range Toddy (136.40 - pos. 5-5-4; LB 1.75-1.75-1.0) are my place horses; and the deep closer is Code of Honor (136.80 - pos. 5-3-2, LB 8.50-4.0 - 0.5)
Tacitus coming from a 4-4-1, 8.5 - 7.5 - 0 run could get a piece as well.
Those are my facts, my bet awaits a few more days reflection and the race odds.
Good luck
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The Sunland mile time of 134.6 is fast and I expect some downward adjustment of that time due to its probably the fastest track that any entrant ran on prior to the Derby. That being said, the fastest mile by a Derby horse on the lead was 136.00. Cutting Humor closely pressed the Sunland splits as referenced above so allowing a one second adjustment (arbitrary) he should be near today's pace.
I think there is a price to be had, so Maximum Security, Game winner and Cutting Humor are my best bets.