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I agree with Bill in that any scheme of betting based on odds is now a days unpredictable. One doesn't know the true odds generally until the race is half over(sprints) because of the dump of all the simulcasting outlets money that doesn't come in till the gates open and than has to be factored into the pools.
The game forever changes and a perfect example is that Dr. Z actually beat the game however after writing a book and the proliferation of simulcasting the dutching of a race is no longer a precise endeavor.
These 38% favorites are nothing new and a stat that I don't find particularity earth shattering or some kind of revelation. They can even be higher with some tweaking. Some important information if one is looking for a key horse to a gimmick bet but not a key to the bank.
Ditto for the possible payoffs of DD etc. which I always consult after getting the first leg. The question than becomes am I correct ? Far too much emphasis is placed on odds today and the main thrust should be on analysis and winner getting. Odds from studies of Fabricand and Bender do have some validity of sorts even today as the stats haven't changed much at all in reference to the top 3 win percentage. Etc.
Favorites are still losing at least 60 % or from the above post or 61.6 % for DMR and 62.2 % for Sar. and the fact is we never and I repeat never know in what race that percentage will show up to destroy our bet. If the top 3 low odds horses or favorites were the answer,then the game would cease to exist.
Lastly as far as ADW's other things must be factored in to the equation. When I ask for my return or to cash out are they reliable? There are also other intangibles such as free past performances. With Bris that's a $3 saving and on days that I play multiple tracks even more. If I only bet $100 that's a 3% saving right there. I myself place more emphasis on the proven business model and demonstrated performance rather than jumping around at the latest best offer.
Mitch44
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