Quote:
Originally Posted by Fairchild
I looked at that Glossary before and it is useful but it doesn't answer my question. So much has changed from what is found in the various manuals and examples; it is really difficult to determine what each symbol means. For a person like myself, who only began studying the Sartin Meth. 1 month ago, it is difficult to determine how the various measurements relate to each other so I can rate the horse. So far I have found that the BL/BL has the horses rated very well using the pacelines that either I or the program has chosen; I just wish I could get a mutual higher then $6.00.
Again Thanks
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Fairchild, more winners pay $6.00 than they used to! But if they are the betting favourite, they still win, variably, at rates between 33% to 40%, which is the same as saying that they lose 60-66% of the time. It is not the horse's fault, or the software's (LOL) that good horses are more visible and bet-worthy to the public (than they used to be). However, you DO want such horses to appear on top of your betting line. Also however, you want to give close examination to those other horses in your Top 3 Odds Line who will commensurately go off at much more bettable odds (or reveal a great Place and/or Exacta or other vertical bet). On purpose, the BLBL formula compresses the difference between the Top 3 horses to raise the possibility of more closely examining those possibly 'sketchier' looking horses. And always be on the lookout for a horse further down the Odds Line (say 3rd or 4th) with an out-of-order VDC ranking (e.g. BL ranked 3 or 4 and VDC ranked 1).
The Sartin Methodology (at least as expounded by Doc Sartin), is typically a multi-horse betting strategy (for Win) and this concept is supported by the philosophy behind the BLBL screen and Odds Line. Thus, (and always presuming they are a Contender to run their race today and NOT seriously disadvantaged by other Matchup considerations) consider betting your Top ranked horse and the longer odds of one of your other Top 3. This has the effect of increasing your hit rate at the expense of net mutuel, but also preserves emotional equanimity and allows for MORE BETS. You will be surprised at how many scenarios you find where the Top ranked horse is 2-1 or 9/5 and the 3rd ranked horse is 3-1 or 7/2 (or much more, if the favourite approaches EVEN or less, or if you skip the favourite) where your 2nd horse wins paying sufficient to still have made such a bet. Even more - Exactas are often mis-priced and that same 9/5 and 3-1 combo comes back at $18-22 or so for a 2 horse box, or $18-$4=14 to 4 or 7/2 or 3.5 to 1.
Even a 2-horse bet like EVEN Odds and a 6-1 or higher 2nd horse has merit in the form of a HEDGE: the EVEN odds horse is your hedge and gets you into the game (recoups your wager if it wins) while you solidly aim for the 2nd horse. So often we PASS such a scenario because the favourite looks solid (anybody remember this year's Charlestown Classic and Shared Belief ...
). But the next best horse is also solid, and discounted (= Moreno
). Just one of many possibilities in multi-horse wagering, as are Win-Place bets (single horse, multi-pool wagering = 2 chances to cash)
So, the BLBL layout and concept is to support 'multi-interest' wagering (in single-race pools) and to encourage you to look a little deeper than the obvious top ranked horses. Of course, top horses often rank on top and win, and pay modestly. So, you'd better have a decent enough hit rate for a diet including these. Though - when a betting favourite IS NOT solidly on top of your Odds Line (again, and a true Contender and not disadvantaged by an Early or Late Matchup analysis) - that is, it has
some defects: THEN is when you may gain extra confidence to demote such a horse from Win to Secondary status and reap the better resulting odds on your remaining Contenders.
Hope that is a helpful perspective!
Ted