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Old 10-09-2017, 09:32 PM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Are most races paceless?

Currently there is a thread in the match up section focusing on paceless races. If I understand it correctly, the idea is to find races where no horse has ever been on the lead at the first call in any race listed in their PP’s. In the alternative, perhaps just one horse has been on the lead at the first call in just one of its’ races. Obviously, either of these scenarios constitutes a paceless race, but are these the ONLY scenarios that constitute a paceless race?

Obviously, you have to start with what constitutes and early horse. When you look at a race, what do you look for in order to determine if a horse is early and will challenge for the lead today?

Let’s look at one example. A few of the paceless races in the match up area have been won either wire to wire or 2nd to wire. These winners will return in other races. Off of their last winning race, would you consider them an early horse? Keep in mind that there will be no indication that the horse beat a paceless field of horses in its’ last race. Since all you will know is that it won in early fashion, will you consider it an early horse and capable of challenging for the lead in today’s race?

I think it would be helpful, to all, if as many people as possible offer their view. Feel free to be as specific as you can in presenting your approach.
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