Thread: Suggestions Box
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Old 03-10-2018, 02:35 PM   #13
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Rx3 suggestion

Hi Ted,

With the Live Tote capability back in play, It would seem possible (not sure if the Live tote is capable of fetching the projected Win price like AmWager does) to calculate a $Net based on 1) the Rx3 win percentage and 2) the live tote price.

Example, say a horse has an Rx3 win percentage of 40% and its live tote price is Even (1-1). Since we know that Even on a $2 bet is $4.00, you could multiply 40x4 and divide by 100 to get that horse's $Net on a flat single wager. In this case, this Rx3 horse would have a $Net of $1.60 based on its relative win percentage from Rx3. If the horse's price went higher, the $Net would increase and vice versa. As pacelines and/or contenders are chosen or eliminated, the $Net's would also change.

Obviously, when you're betting multiple horses to win, the $Net would change. However, when looking at runners individually, this would be a good gauge of value relative to the live odds and could be a good add-on to RDSS. It could also be a good thing to model, as it could show if our winning contenders are profitable in relation to the final tote. However, since last minute odds changes after the bell always happen (and we can't bet post-hoc), it may not be totally accurate, as we can only play positive $Net runners before the race goes off. Still, how do our Rx3 40% runners usually fare? Are they typically underlaid or overlaid? Hope I explained this clear.

~Tim

Last edited by Jeebs; 03-10-2018 at 02:41 PM.
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