Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath
Ted, Would not #8Prime cut be the swing horse and therefore become the #1 E by virtue of his 101 high rating and either the 10 or 12 horses being the other E since they are basically tied at 98 &97
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Prime Cut is the Swing horse, but pretty far down the Early Speed% list (5th). Shackleford is dominant over MMM with 67% of the top 2 Early Speed, so he needs to be designated the #1 Early. I can see making a case though for Prime as #2 Early with his superior high SR. According to the current software rules (not saying they're perfect), we just use the 2nd ES% horse as the #2, but perhaps that's what the brain is for!
For some users, the #1 Early Speed% (double RED) is the 'kiss of death' for Win. Based on other RDSS analysis, I'm not sure MMM is Shackleford's worst Early nightmare, so his #1 ES ranking might not be a 'liability' here. It would not surprise me for Shackleford to go all the way on the front end (just like Da'Tara 3 years ago!)
Perhaps the above analysis is a good one to pose to Dave S in the EL2/NewPace discussion forum.
Ted