Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - RDSS2

Mark · 05-30-2016, 03:48 PM

Peterman,

It makes a great deal of sense. But from being right on to way off, you never know. So I don't use them. I do use ITV however.

In my view final time is completely reliant on early pace. I don't know the percentage but I believe it is a good 50%. You don't get fast final times without fast early fractions. If you have a bunch of SPs and S in a race or slow Pressers, nobody wants the lead. You see it in turf routes all the time. You see Pressers who can finish against a 1:11 but some slow E or EP grabs the lead and they play follow the leader through 1:12. There is a limit to how fast a horse can run the final fraction, they are flesh and blood.

So it makes absolute no sense to me to make final time variants that don't in some fashion take into account the early pace and it makes less sense to apply a final time variant to early fractions. It's nonsense. I don't know why some really smart guy hasn't figured a way to do this. Hell, it has been done this way since early TPR days. Pizzolla showed how he adjusted DRF speed ratings by 2nd calls off his fulcrum pace. If I was 20 years younger I might make a stab at it, but I have gotten to lazy and so I just don't use them.

05-30-2016, 03:48 PM	#28
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Dtv Peterman, It makes a great deal of sense. But from being right on to way off, you never know. So I don't use them. I do use ITV however. In my view final time is completely reliant on early pace. I don't know the percentage but I believe it is a good 50%. You don't get fast final times without fast early fractions. If you have a bunch of SPs and S in a race or slow Pressers, nobody wants the lead. You see it in turf routes all the time. You see Pressers who can finish against a 1:11 but some slow E or EP grabs the lead and they play follow the leader through 1:12. There is a limit to how fast a horse can run the final fraction, they are flesh and blood. So it makes absolute no sense to me to make final time variants that don't in some fashion take into account the early pace and it makes less sense to apply a final time variant to early fractions. It's nonsense. I don't know why some really smart guy hasn't figured a way to do this. Hell, it has been done this way since early TPR days. Pizzolla showed how he adjusted DRF speed ratings by 2nd calls off his fulcrum pace. If I was 20 years younger I might make a stab at it, but I have gotten to lazy and so I just don't use them.