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Old 02-14-2014, 10:31 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Fulcrum

I do it a little differently. I use the adjusted EPR numbers
Because I can't do track to track adjustments the dtv adjustments

I come up with the 8 horse

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Setting the fulcrum pace of race as per Pace Makes The Race
I have the fulcrum as a 93 EPR That means I am looking for horses who have finished competitive = less than 5 BL at the second call and final time against a 93 EP


Last line for every horse TPR phase 1 numbers

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Looking at this screen which is the last line for every horse.
The fastest EP is horse 1 but horse 1 is not the fulcrum because it was not competitive against at the final time.
The next highest is horse 10, but horse 10 also does not make it
because of beaten lengths at the final time, nor does the next
best horse # 2. I just will keep going down the EPR rankings till I find the horse who ran the fastest second call EPR and finished within 5 of the leaders at the second call and final time.

In this race that would land me on horse 8.
It ran a 91.5 adjusted EPR at CRC in the last line
It was 2 lengths behind so the fulcrum pace of race
in the Feb 7 race at CRC was 93.5
Now I need to see if the 93.5 competitive finish was not atypical for horse 8. and I see that it is not
Horse 8 has run competitively against a 93.5 EPR in other races
So my fulcrum in today's race is 93.5 or about a 45.2 raw

Bill
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