View Single Post
Old 06-21-2019, 04:50 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Some reality Stats

The fulcrum pace measures is the fastest 2nd call or "EPR". Measurable races must come from the last line, at the same distance(within1/2furlong) The line must be from today's surface.

The line must be a competitive paceline. By competitive, the fulcrum must be from a line in which the horse was equal to or less than the 5th position at the second call. and finished within equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The fulcrum horse is not foolproof but not many things in racing are.

The fulcrum is, however, a very good way to estimate the POR at the second
call and also who will be close enough to compete in today's race

The concept of the fulcrum is not a handicapping factor to pick winners like BLBL or VDC or RX.

The fulcrum is a way to see how competitive each horse should be relative to the fulcrum POR. Within about 2.5 to 3 beaten lengths

1st or 2nd call

Would you be interested in something I found surprising?

This is from my complete model/profile from the just ended Santa Anita meet.

There were a total of 696 races

I not only exported every race and every day, into my RDSS model
I also added my own interest factors, after exporting I used the result
chart to record the winner position and BL at the 1st and second call.
of the WINNER or the race.

Here is an example
Name:  Calls from Result chart.PNG
Views: 898
Size:  12.1 KB

The second call BL and position actually show a better indication percent of the eventual winner

Here is a little breakdown of the position and BL of all 696 winners.
They were equal to or less than 5th position and equal to or less than 5 beaten lengths.

The winner of 92% percent of all 696 winners was equal
to or less than 5 BL at the second call (EPR)

This is a very good supporting factor when looking for those competitive
finished for your fulcrum.

Name:  within.PNG
Views: 939
Size:  5.8 KB


Good Skill
Bill
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote