Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
Ernie, I hope you don't mind - I gathered your 4 Tote Xray examples into this one Thread, since they're all on the same topic, different illustrations on a theme.
Thanks for posting these! I think a point worth studying is that, at minimum, Tote Xray confidence can suggest a horse which at least belongs in exotic calculations where you may otherwise have eliminated it on every other readout, or where form is too old to trust by your normal metrics. Whether they're a Win candidate is a separate issue, but perhaps, like a high previous (e.g. early last year) CR ranking, perhaps consider this as an excuse to evaluate numbers from further back. Depending on price offered.
I might caution, both pro and con, that if the Tx rank also co-relates with the Top 4 Win Odds (even better if drifting above say 5-1) then that's reinforcement. On the other hand, if a Tx value comes from fairly small amounts of money in the Win or Place pools, and is out of whack completely with Win Odds, consider that there may be too little pool info to go on (unless the all Pool sizes are fairly small...).
Good work - hope to hear you cash on some of these!
Ted
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Thanks for your feedback.
Yes, I know that the tote usually is in synch with top 4 win odds.
I also promised BJennet that I would show examples of TX horses that
are outside of the top 5 BL/BL.
I first started looking at the tote for the exotics, in particular the exacta,
for which I need much improvement. I am doing ok at BTW and
if I was smart I should let well enough alone. But no I want to go to the next
level so I started tracking the top 4 TX for exacta hits and at last count it was in the 60-65% range.
Now there's a starting point. As I accumulated more races I began noticing
how outside horses were either winning or running ITM. Now I am thinking
this could be a window of opportunity. Yes, you are right some
of these outside horses are the color coded APV / CR. My RDSS contenders
take priority and I am using the TX as an ancillary tool. This is helping
me but this game is not a piece of cake.
I also see that you defaulted to the 3 Red, Green and yellow TX horses in 2.0.
Could you include that 4th TX horse ?
Regards,
Ernie