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Old 01-09-2018, 09:59 AM   #11
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont View Post
Omission of material can be as misleading as misleading statements. Pizzolla in his book DOES NOT advocate just a "Two Excuse" method of pace line selection. He firsts states use the first line, unless. Similar to the Sartin method in the paceline manual. He gives this a mnenomic (sp?), LASST. If we look at what the letters stand for, LAyoff, Surface, Structure, Trouble. Structure I believe is sprint to route, route to sprint etc. Trouble is major trouble but not 3 wide, boxed in or comments that may or may not have hindered the progress of the horse in the race.

Using just those 4 that he mentions is used by many handicappers would put the paceline back at the 5th race. Very similar to what is promoted in one of the above posts.

What then follows in the book is what he calls the dirty dozen. Eight more minor reasons to think about going back another race but just one reason is not enough. The handicapper should have 2 reasons from those eight to continue going back a race. He also mentions that those eight are HIS reasons and other handicappers might have others and to use what works for you.

Just to clarify. I am not advocating anyone use his methods and I personally DO NOT use any of his software but purchased his book because when I originally purchased The New Pace Makes The Race it did not include the writings by Pizzolla and I felt extremely disappointed as I had read what Bill V. wrote about the fulcrum horse that was described in the original book along with other teachings I hoped would be rewarding to read.

I am pleased with the information that I have read, just as I am pleased with the information I have read in the other 15 - 20 books I have purchased. There is quality information in every one and there are reasons to disagree with other information given within those bindings.


Ray
I wouldn't necessarily say that I was misleading. The chapter I posted about contains the info re: Two Excuse. However, the chapter doesn't devote itself entirely to it, and is merely his guide to paceline selection, covering LASST, using the entire PPs, and highlighting the "Dirty Dozen" reasons to open up the proverbial "form cycle window" to find the best line of the window.

To Mitch and Tim's point, Pizzolla's aim is finding boxcar payouts. It is a high variance strategy susceptible to a lot of bad runs, so someone who is either 1) undercapitalized and/or 2) lacks the constitution to withstand a "cold deck" is going to have a difficult time "waiting out" the payouts.

Re: BLAM (Black Magic) and his new update (Valuecapper) - They have their own legion of followers who claim to do well. However, the overhead (nearly $2000 for program and tapes and other assortments, plus over $100 a month for unlimited data) is steep. Someone I know has BLAM and has complained that it does them no good as far as multi-race betting is concerned, because Pizzolla's main aim is attacking each race individually. To each their own I guess.
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