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Old 01-20-2021, 12:37 PM   #13
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Bill;
The best of last 3 that the program strictly adheres to isn't the best option. In your example the horses 2nd line was on an off track and not within 1 F of today's distance. Under Sartin's guidelines this line would be eliminated thus including line 4 for consideration which is the correct line.

In order to obtain the maximum efficiency of the program all lines selected must be reviewed according to his guidelines of best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. His guidelines and a users own brain can outperform a generic and lazy automatic approach. Not all, but an instant gratification approach to races can be a recipe for disaster.

This is another reason why those that keep models should; 1. keep their own models and 2 use only races that you have handicapped. Just using a down and dirty strict rule such as last 3 can really muddy the waters of accuracy. Mediocre approaches begets mediocre results.

Mitch44
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