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Dave:
As far as % Med I would recommend you read Brohamer's book Modern Pace Handicapping. He goes into great detail on % Med and its usage. It can be used for determining the ability of a horse to stretch out or ability to take to the turf Etc. His book also goes into detail on Feet Per Second ratings. Not an easy read for most but an exceptional book filled with great information.
One take you'll get from his book is to set a range for % Med. not a specific number. A range is designed to capture most of the winners, winners fall into a range.
That guideline of using 2 to 1 for an adjustment is highly inaccurate and I would not recommend anyone use it. I've analyzed this in some detail and came to the conclusion that there is no specific formula for all horses or racing as a whole. There is no specific rule like that that can be used with any accuracy. And this is due to two reasons; 1. every horse decelerates at a different rate. Some stop on a dime hitting a brick wall, others gradually decline while others show little or no decline. The best horses carry their speed further and decline the least such as graded horses. The lower down the class latter the less distance they can carry speed and the faster they decelerate. 2. Todays match up greatly effects how much a horse or how fast a horses decelerates. The more early pace that it can't handle, the faster it will decline. Forget that 2 to 1 ratio as its not accurate at all. Sartin even said that those that carry the match up into the 3rd FR will most of the time get it wrong. The program within RDSS(Sartin's concepts) does a much better job in all this and is much more accurate.
Some may be surprised to learn that I don't use a Track Profile or a Model. I play too many different tracks for all that work etc. If a person only played one track throughout its meet than it can be useful. Sartin believed that 80% + of a race has to do with the match up of a particular race and that every race is different. I also have found that to ring true. I believe the % is much higher than the 80 % he states. Not keeping a track profile or a model has not effected my game one bit.
All my best,
Mitch44
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