Thanks Mitch,
Sorry for the late reply. Family etc etc.
I've got MPH. I like his concept of ranges a lot, especially when the %M point is in the middle of the contenders and none of them hit it exactly!. It's my favourite book on horse racing.
I agree with your 2:1 analysis. It isn't an exact science and all horses are definitely different. It's still something I feel the need to explore a little further at some point. Perhaps a more accurate method would be to analyse the impact of the different pace scenarios that a horse has met and from that work out the adjustment. Probably a lot of work involved!
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